Le Pen Denied As France’s Left Rolls To Shock Election Win

The firewall held. The firewall held.

Marine Le Pen suffered a grievous blow in the second round of France’s legislative snap elections on Sunday, when the National Rally placed third, a wild reversal of fortunes for the country’s far-right.

Just a week ago, RN was “at the gates of power” having largely replicated its success in the EU parliament vote during the first ballot for seats in the new National Assembly.

Emmanuel Macron, whose decision to dissolve France’s legislature in the wake of the EU election last month stunned the world, exhorted his remaining allies and erstwhile rivals alike to unite this week in a “broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance” to block Le Pen in the second round.

Between that effort and a united leftist front, Le Pen not only fell short of the majority she sought, but watched RN underperform Macron’s group to finish third.

Le Pen’s bloc won 143 seats. That’s more (obviously) than her group held in the last assembly, but counts as a shocking letdown relative to her ambitions for an outright majority. Macron’s centrist group won 156 seats.

The winner wasn’t the right, nor the center but rather the left, which rolled to victory claiming 178 seats. Coming as it does on the heels of Labour’s historic landslide in the UK, this was a good week for Europe’s political left.

It’s hard to overstate how dispiriting this must be for Le Pen, although I’m sure she’ll try to spin it as something other than the failed coup that it was. By the time France went to the polls, it was fairly clear the far-right wasn’t going to secure a majority, but a third place finish? Behind Macron? That’s a jolt.

Turnout was the highest in more than four decades. That spelled trouble for Le Pen this time. Blocking the far-right’s a two-step process. The first step entails convincing third-place candidates from the first round to drop their bid. The second step involves convincing the people who voted for those candidates to turn out in the second round and vote for their second choice.

Long story short, the plan worked. And far better than pollsters imagined it might. Le Pen had candidates in over 200 locales where opposition elements coordinated defensive maneuvers. Apparently, she was outflanked.

Now, it’s not a Le Pen question anymore. It’s a Jean-Luc Melenchon question. The three-week-old New Popular Front probably doesn’t want to put Melenchon up for prime minister, but they don’t want to alienate him either.

That latter point speaks to the difficulty Macron’s group faces in working with the left to form a government. Although his bloc might be able to eke out a majority by aligning with the New Popular Front sans-France Unbowed, it’ll presumably be more difficult now to sideline Melenchon, who’ll be hell-bent on his own agenda.

Macron’s office said only that “the president will ensure the sovereign choice of the French people is respected.” Gabriel Attal announced his intention to resign pretty much immediately. Macron wants him to stay, at least until there’s clarity on who the left might float as prime minister.

So, did Macron’s gamble ultimately pay off? Yes and no. Yes in the sense that the “cordon sanitaire” isn’t passé after all: Le Pen suffered a de facto defeat. The far-right was denied in France. Again. No in the sense that Macron’s now beholden to the left, and perhaps to the far-left.

“Our victory will be scrutinized everywhere, particularly by leftists around the world,” Melenchon declared. “Many will try to act as if nothing has happened. But we won.”


 

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5 thoughts on “Le Pen Denied As France’s Left Rolls To Shock Election Win

  1. The sentiment from the French center is that we had “a choice between Peste and Cholera”… and we got Cholera… I guess it’s better?

    Both extremes have populist agendas that are misguided and un-implementable. Both, for slightly different reasons, are fond of Russia/Putin. This is an historical defeat for common sense, prudence and the future of France. I shudder to think what 2027 will be like. I hope I can get out of there before that.

    FWIW, just like the UK, though less acute (afaict), our problems are structural/come from a lack of economic growth engines. Basically, not enough wealth is being actually generated, regardless of how you split the pie.

    And, sure, growing the pie, when you are close to the technological frontier, is not something economists/experts decisively know how to do (as opposed to initiating catch up growth) but populist policies are neither here nor there when there’s no wealth to support any of them.

    For my part, and that’s despite being left of center and thus generally thinking Demand has the primacy in Supply/Demand mechanisms, I believe France needs to reform its regulatory structures. For political reasons, I’d avoid starting with workers’ rights. But we have phenomenons like companies stopping at 9 or 49 employees deliberately (as having 10 and then 50 employees trigger a step change in regulatory demands) – this is clearly France leaving tons of growth and employment on the table and, hopefully, whatever extra rules get triggered around having 10 rather than 9 employees aren’t too politically charged/a sacred cow to anyone except lawyers and civil servants…

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