Donald Trump won the first (and, if Democrats have any sense about them, the only) 2024 US presidential debate like Joe Biden wasn’t even there. Mostly because he wasn’t. There, I mean.
It was a walkover for Trump. A cake walk. Duck soup. If it was a boxing match, they would’ve stopped it.
Biden couldn’t articulate a coherent thought. He struggled to finish even short sentences. To the extent you could understand them, his responses felt laboriously rehearsed, but he couldn’t remember his lines. Without a mental script and unable to think on his feet, Biden was utterly bereft. And wholly defenseless. At one point, Trump said, sardonically, “I don’t know what he said there at the end. I don’t think he does either.”
Trump, by contrast, was sharp. Objectively sharp. The juxtaposition was particularly stark early on, when Biden repeatedly froze mid-sentence, at times resorting to rhetorical applesauce in an ultimately fruitless effort to conceal what’s now painfully obvious to everyone: Rumors of Biden’s cognitive decline weren’t rumors.
Somehow, Trump mustered the restraint to adhere to the debate rules for the first half hour or so, and that served him well. Viewership tends to be higher early, and that’s when the acuity contrast between the two men was most glaring. A lot of voters weren’t watching by the time Trump succumbed to temptation and began using his allotted time to revisit previous topics, a mistake that came at considerable cost: He missed the opportunity to address crucial issues, including the cost of childcare and Palestinian statehood.
Make no mistake, Trump didn’t exhibit anything like presidential behavior. Far from it. Trump was Trump. In that regard, it was the same old bullsh-t. The same shtick. The same dark stand-up routine. Lies by the dozens. Dangerously pernicious lies. Innocent white lies. And every sort of lie in-between. All pyramided atop one another, and all stated just as confidently as if they were incontrovertible facts. He trafficked in the usual exaggerations and a few more besides. Exaggerations “the likes of which our country’s never seen before,” as he might put it. And absurdities galore. “I just won two club championships,” he mused, boasting about his golf game while explaining why Americans should be confident in his physical capacity to serve.
But Trump’s balderdash wasn’t the story. The story was Biden’s inability to participate. Biden didn’t just underperform, he wasn’t capable of engaging in a debate. After Thursday evening, voters won’t be blamed for wondering if Biden’s even capable of engaging in a discussion. Trump’s performance was “good” as far as Trump presidential debate performances go, but that’s not saying much if it’s saying anything at all. Biden shouldn’t have been there.
Worse for Biden and Democrats, Trump didn’t sound like a dictator on Thursday evening. He sounded like the demagogue and wannabe strongman that he is. I’ve said this over and over again: The domestic threat to America isn’t dictator Don. It’s the GOP project to institute a Viktor Orbán-style illiberal “democracy.” Or Erdogan-style one-man rule disguised as a constitutional republic. But that’s hard to communicate even to relatively intelligent voters. So, Democrats rely on the dictator talking point. It’s a hard sell. Really it is. Even considering January 6. And Trump certainly didn’t play to it during the debate.
Asked if he’d accept the results of the election if it’s fair, Trump said, after a lot of rambling, “absolutely.” And he said it multiple times. Do I believe him? Well, of course not. Nobody believes him. He’s a “whiner,” as Biden put it. But it’s hard to square “whiner” with “dictator.” Dictators don’t “whine.” (They don’t debate either, by the way.) Asked about the January 6 rioters, Trump deftly deflected. Somehow, Trump managed to escape without having to take a position on the jailed participants in his mini-coup which he — ludicrously — blamed on Nancy Pelosi.
Predictably, Trump hit Biden on immigration and he hit him hard. He also hit him on inflation. And on and on. In almost every case, Trump employed egregious lies and wild exaggerations. The problem, though, is that illegal border crossings are real. So’s inflation. And Biden had no answers. Literally. He literally had no answers, not because he hasn’t done anything on immigration and inflation, but rather because, again, he’s apparently incapable of articulation at this point.
I don’t know where Democrats go from here, frankly. The saving grace for Biden is that the vast majority of committed Democrats wouldn’t vote for Trump if their life depended on it. Trump’s not going to “win over” any Biden voters. Certainly not enough to count for anything. But among undecided voters who inexplicably still consider Trump a viable candidate for the highest office in the world — and there are at least a few million of them — Biden’s debate debacle probably looks disqualifying.
Prior to the debate, I would’ve told you it’s far too late to run Kamala and that even if it wasn’t, it’d be too risky. Now I’m not so sure. Harris isn’t likable. At all. But she’s capable. Highly capable. That should count for something.
It might be time to consider flipping the ticket. Maybe it’s Harris-Biden now. I can tell you this for certain: A Harris-Trump debate wouldn’t be a walkover. Not for Trump, anyway.
Harris-Biden could be the game changer in this election. However, the Demograts need fresh blood to revive its party.
2-5-5
Inconvenient truth rings out within your words.
Good suggestions however. Are we ready for an articulate intelligent woman of color as our president? Reading the words I wrote brings up a strong thought. The ultimate underdog play would be to put Kamala out front of the ticket.
“Are we ready for an articulate intelligent woman of color as our president?”
Probably not. But if Democrats are going to lose anyway, they might as well take the risk. At least then they can say “We tried to pivot. Voters are just backwards and ignorant.”
And anyway, it’d almost be worth losing to see Trump eviscerated by a career prosecutor for 90 minutes in the second debate.
Of course the obvious thing to do here is to run Michelle…
I am not well versed in election rules. With all the state by state rules is not a Michelle ticket at this late hour out of the question? If so, this great idea will never leave the leather chair.
Obama-Harris!
Agree w/ your sentiments prior to debate. I anticipated Biden would be a bit more like he was during State of the Union. Whether his handlers overprepared him (again), causing him to try to remember lines and speak too fast, doesn’t matter now. He looked like he had just had a stroke. Sadly, and it was gut-wrenchingly sad, he almost looked dead on his feet when he wasn’t trying to speak.
Some Dems and non-Dems don’t like Harris b/c she’s too tough. Dems need tough. Harris would annihilate Trump during a debate. Trump knows it and would do everything possible to avoid debating her. Harris puts him in a lose-lose situation for a future debate. If he succeeds in avoiding it, Dems runs ads saying he’s afraid of Kamala and/or his refusal to debate is one more sign he sees (not “thinks’; Trump doesn’t think) women as worth much less than men. If he debates her, KH gets under his skin from the beginning, quickly causing him to lose it bc he can’t handle anyone–especially a woman–making him look bad.
Biden has a chance to walk away a hero. He beat Trump in 2020 and he can show the humility to open the door for a younger, tougher, very capable candidate who is right for the moment. Will she win? Unknowable. But she’ll fight and Dems haven’t done any of that for awhile. KH would flip the script and put Trump on his heels. A good start for independents and moderate republicans who still value truth, integrity, equality, and worth saying again in a different way, the role reality should play in leaders’ decision-making.
And Biden could do what it seems he really wants to do, retire. He deserves to live life on his own terms having set us on a good path with the destruction of the Republican party, Russia and the energy transition. The biggest mistake we could make is to ask one person to take the mantle and write the rules for the next few decades. We all need to step up in this role to get the best possible solutions.
The biggest questions going forward in my mind:
What does the economy look like and what supports the dollar in the face of AI and spot energy prices going to zero. We are both productivity starved and an energy intensive society, therefore these are impactful questions.
What do we do about the prospect of one party rule? The former Republican National Committee is pledged to the only job that matters which is the election of Trump. That is not a party of ideas that can survive Trump.
How do we update the constitution for our new economy. I worked in highly regulated industries at a management level and came to view the regulatory state with it’s technocrats as far superior to technical issues adjudicated by people with no training in technical issues. However we now have edicts that undermine the balance we have enjoyed in our economic expansion.
How do we balance morality in our new age. The right to bear arms cannot be sacrosanct if the definition of the word ‘arms’ has been allowed to change.
Trump said he’s never seen anyone lie like Biden lol
“Nobody’s ever lied like this guy. Well, I have. I have the best lies. The biggest lies. A lot of people say I’m maybe the best liar on any planet, not just this one. I don’t know that for sure. But I don’t know why it wouldn’t be true. Think of it. If there are aliens, could they lie as big as me? I don’t see how. Anyway, this guy’s a liar too. Huge. A huge liar. Not as big as me. But pretty big!”
“Thank you President Trump. You still have 47 seconds. The question was: What do you say to families who are struggling with the cost of childcare?”
This is not an acronym I usually use but…. LOL
Indeed, LOL. Or sad emoji… depending on one’s prior…
I’m not sure why after Obama the DNC decided to become the party of the olds but the strategy doesn’t seem to be working.
To beat Trump you need someone with his energy (albeit not fabricated by snorting pills).
Clinton and Biden had the brainpower to beat him in a debate but not the energy to really sell it.
Now Biden doesn’t even have the energy to complete a sentence.
If Obama were running against Trump and he was at that debate last night he would have eviscerated his lies with a quick mic drop of facts and then still had time left over to answer the question that was posed.
I viewed this debate much differently. Biden did indeed ramble and lose his thoughts often but he got a bit stronger as it went on and at least laid out some plans on economy, childcare, and what they have done overseas…. Trump just deflects and attacks without ever answering a question directly or with any type of plan. Trump is the guy who complains about their sport’s team coaches but doesnt offer any solutions or ideas… Neither candidate had anything of substance on immigration
I understand people want to view the debate differently, but that’s something different from viewing it objectively. I’ve seen Biden debate, discuss and otherwise argue with political opponents for decades. The inescapable reality is that there’s just not a lot there anymore. It’s not just that he’s “lost a step.” He can barely talk. The idea that he’s going to be able to travel around the world and give high stakes speeches three years from now is completely unrealistic.
If you declare Trump the winner of the debate or vote for him solely on “capacity to travel and say words loudly” then fine so be it but anyone who votes for him based on ideology/plans to improve the country is just plainly misguided. Thanks for the commentary
Kyle, I don’t know how long you’ve been a reader, but if it’s longer than a month, you surely understand that the idea of me as a Trump voter is just about the silliest thing imaginable.
All I’m saying here is that if you’re older than, say, 40, you remember Senator Biden — i.e., remember what he looked like and sounded like. If you’re over 50, you remember “young” Senator Biden.
VP Biden was a shadow of Senator Biden. This guy (President Biden in 2024) isn’t just a “shadow” of Senator Biden, he’s not even the same person in any meaningful sense.
He didn’t articulate anything on Thursday evening. He just said words. And in some cases he said things that weren’t words. In other cases, he looked for words, couldn’t find them and just stood there.
I don’t know any other objective way to describe that 90 minutes.
I mean look, if a lot of people liked me (they don’t, but let’s pretend) I wouldn’t expect them to lie and say “Oh, man, you did awesome! Sharp as a tack!” if it wasn’t true. I hope they’d say “Listen, your heart’s in the right place, but as a group of people who care deeply about you, we feel like we need to tell you the truth…” etc. etc.
And that’s the key point to any hope for a change in course: Will Jill Biden, Obama, and others tell Biden the truth and will Biden set aside his ego, listen, and act? He may be too far gone to listen and hear the truth.
Genuine hero if he steps aside. He may be close to joining his old friend, John McCain, on the other side. Now is the time to do the right thing.
Yep. I only watch bits of clips from Jon Stewart, not exactly a Trump supporter. And I say bits b/c I fast forwarded out of second hand embarrassment. I wanted to believe Biden could pull it off. He can’t. I believed he was physically weakened, but still intellectually capable. He isn’t.
It feels like if they force him on the campaign trail, we’ll get Harris sworn in before the election happens…
Long time reader and I appreciate your opinion on these things and for being in my mid-20s I have not had the chance to see Biden throughout his career to make comparisons (not that you need a comparison to know last night was a disaster)… Agreed that people need to step in and provide truth. Thanks again
40% are voting against Trump and 40% are voting against Biden, while 20% of voters don’t want either one of them. This is a fine mess we’ve gotten ourselves into.
If the “winner” of a debate and people’s votes is based on showmanship and bluster regardless of the lies, then we need to start viewing the debates as purely entertainment rather than serious discussions of policy and leadership. Maybe it’s always been that way, and shame on me for not realizing that earlier.
Your assumption that swing voters know Trump is lying betrays your lack of understanding about that demographic. Imagine that a viewer doesn’t know that Trump was lying every time he opened his mouth? Who would they think won their vote last night?
why dont they bring back Hiliary? Shes just as dodgey as Trump she would be interesting.
Amy Klobuchar
The Democrats need to call in Conrad Brean from “Wag the Dog” to spin this one. “Did you hear that the Russians hired someone in the administration to administer Novichok to Biden just prior to the debate? The dosage would have killed a lesser man.”
One revealing moment from Biden’s after-debate appearance in Atlanta: A cheery, amped-up Jill Biden introduces her husband in rousing fashion — “Great job, Joe”, “Facts against lies”, etc. — hands him the mic, and then positions herself behind him as Joe launches into an anecdote that seems off-point — and as he does so, you can see the smile on Jill’s face give way to frustration and dismay. Biden finally gets to his point, but by then someone has gotten Jill to move out of frame. Sad.
BTW, Biden’s defenders this morning — and I voted for him in 2020 — are pointing to his “strong” SOTU performance as the real “tell” inre his faculties. I didn’t think his presentation that night was anything special; it didn’t even rise to a mediocre Clinton or Obama level. It just demonstrated that he still had something on the ball. But Biden’s decline, physical and cognitive, in the six months since has been shocking. No other word for it.
I hope folks realize now that any chance Biden had of beating Trump come November evaporated last night. Absent an act of God Trump will be the next president unless the Democratic party can somehow figure out a swap and field someone else as their candidate. Harris? Newsome? Whitmer? They might still lose but we know now Biden will lose, if this election is indeed a referendum on our democracy and democratic institutions the Dems need to run someone else. I don’t think they’ll do it because there’s still a lot of delusion among the Dems I know, but hopefully I’m wrong.
I think you’re wrong – as in, Ds know Biden was a risky choice (and now know he’s a disastrous choice) but, apparently, according to Matt Yglesias, the party machines have atrophied so much they can’t really make backroom deals to field pre-approved/vetted candidates anymore…
I’m going to guess the “strategy” will be to mitigate, which probably won’t help Biden’s campaign.
In a recorded exchange in the Oval Office during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Joint Chiefs of Staff unanimously pressured JFK to launch a surprise air strike on Cuba. They bullied him, saying not following their counsel would be weak, foolish, and would risk nuclear war. JFK stood alone against every expert in the room and ordered a naval blockade instead. He arguably prevented WWIII. Demographic age curves (among other things) are putting tremendous pressure on foreign adversaries (many with nuclear capabilities) to accelerate hostile geopolitical moves into the next decade. Of the potential 2024 candidates, Kamala Harris is the person I trust the least to stand up to the generals when it matters most. She stands for nothing. She has zero contrarian impulses. Despite the optics, the democrats need to come up with someone else. And if she is the nominee, then if the campaign message is simply, “How dare you criticize her, and any American who doesn’t vote for her is backwards, evil, and racist”, then this will increase the odds of a Trump victory as much as the “don’t believe your eyes” defenses of Biden has. Pragmatically speaking, Newsom would be a better choice.
You have no idea what Kamala Harris would or wouldn’t do in that kind of situation.
You “trust her least.” Ok, fine. I don’t like cookies. “She has zero contrarian impulses” in your view. Ok, cookies suck in my view — they have zero redeeming qualities as a snack food.
The point is, you’re presenting your assessment of the vice president as though it’s a fact. Like “the sky’s blue.” I have no doubt that you think it’s a fact. But that doesn’t make it one. It’s an opinion. It’s not possible to quantify, definitively, someone’s “contrarian impulses.” How do you measure that? With a contrarian impulse-o-meter?
I’m sure you can make a good argument. And that’s great. Certainly better than stating something and not being able to make a good argument. But, again, there’s no argument good enough to transform an opinion into a fact. You can sit here, in this comment section all day today and write a 40,000-word, well-reasoned essay that cites every, single instance of Harris adopting a “conformist” view, and it still won’t turn an opinion into a fact.
Also, let’s take a look at what you said, in these very pages, a scant three days ago. Here’s a direct quote from you:
“Biden’s campaign should be, ‘listen, I screwed up. We should have picked a successor in 2023, and probably would have if the mid-terms didn’t go so well. We were all so nervous about Kamala and the optics of picking someone else that we felt the best option was to press forward with a second term. But my mental and physical decline is now really accelerating, and it’s too late to pivot. So if I’m reelected, I’ll be stepping down in late 2025 and handing it to Kamala. She’ll have a good, democratic-establishment team around her. If you can live with that, vote for me. If you can’t, then you can take your chances with the self-serving lunatic who can’t admit he lost in 2020.’ That’s his best pitch at this point. If he did that, he’d get my vote.”
So, “nuck,” three days ago, you wanted Biden to “step down in late 2025 and hand it to Kamala,” who would be surrounded by “a good, democratic-establishment team.” That’d “get [your] vote.”
Now, 72 hours later, Kamala would’ve (or might’ve) started World War 3 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, according to you.
Seems like you’ve got some cognitive dissonance going on over there.
My opinion on VP Harris is, as you point out, just my opinion. It’s a character assessment based on what I’ve seen of her public engagements over the years, sufficient for me to have a degree of conviction about it. It’s not fact. If the hypothetical around the Biden/Harris campaign being (gasp) honest about what this was, that Biden’s ‘unfit, but still better than trump’, and will therefore step down before the 2026 mid-terms, then they would at least pass the honesty/integrity test, and would probably get my vote. I think Newsom is the better candidate, and I believe the tail risk of a nuclear exchange is highest with Harris as commander-in-chief, relative to Biden, Trump, or Newsom. But that’s just one consideration. It’d be hard to not cast my vote for any physically and mentally capable candidate that’s running against trump.
Interesting to speak/think only in terms of discounting nuclear tail risk with a Trump presidency when what actions he loudly declares he would take (that would just so happen to coincide with decreased risk) amounts to reckless appeasement (if not clumsily transparent quid pro quo), likely deterioration of NATO, and possible up-ending of Western hegemony within your lifetime – in favor of those doing the missile pointing.
Such fission-wielding alleycats care not at all for human life nor rule of law and make exactly zero overtures to the contrary. This is but slower murder.
I don’t disagree. Appeasement can be as reckless as direct engagement. This has been the big question for a couple hundred years and we (the US government) have taken it too far in both directions, at times. And the idea that trump could be in the seat during a major incident is frightening. Though I’d think that if you’re a foreign autocrat doing a tabletop exercise on “what will America do if we do horrifying thing X”, it’s probably easier to make assumptions about a Biden or Harris admin than a Trump admin. But that’s just a guess. Perhaps that explains why the pieces started moving on the international board in 2021.
I’m a year older than Donald Trump and two years younger than President Biden, so I know something very personal about the effects of aging at this stage of life. The risks rise and capabilities decline measurably every year. I know this objectively because I am one of the fortunate few who can still run. It’s apparent that my ability to run will soon come to an end. The times recorded in my running log do not lie. Nobody could view that debate objectively and deny the massive deterioration of President Biden. We always have needed to cultivate younger leaders to reduce the risks that come with this when wisdom no longer compensates for the gathering weakness.
Another thing about my age: I have viewed every presidential and vice-presidential debate in the 64 years since Nixon and Kennedy initiated this dubious sport/entertainment. In my estimation, last night’s performance was the second worst in terms of policy. Unfortunately for President Biden the second worst was Trump’s. President Biden’s performance could not beat the second worst. We might be looking at something like a repetition of the last months of the Wilson and Reagan presidencies, not a pleasant prospect, but still much preferable to the Trump alternative.
I can only hope that President Biden will do the right thing and open the field to the highly qualified Democratic bench. Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer led the way with good results. Now is the time.
The DNC needs to work through Jill Biden to get Joe step aside. This “step aside” will likely need to include a plan to somehow protect Hunter from any legal issues related to his laptop. However, the timing of when Biden steps aside is important.
If Biden steps aside before the Democratic national convention, the representatives will elect a Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate at the convention.
Alternatively, if Biden is elected as the party’s candidate at the national convention and then, after the convention, he steps aside, the DNC will decide (without the vote of the representatives) who the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate will be.
The DNC has a little time to figure out who to put forth as a candidate and when to do that. If this gets handled with intelligence, the Democratic Party still has a pretty good chance of beating Trump.
Without wanting to be too abrasive, I think it might be time to — ummm — stop worrying about that laptop. The national obsession with that thing is farcical, to put it politely.
The problem with your idea is that it seems Dr. Jill strongly wants Mr. Biden to run. Many articles on this topic over the last year.
It’s so sad to see that man up there. It’s frankly elder abuse.
Could he really have been decent in the rehearsals and just lost it on stage? It seems unlikely. Why did they put him out there?????
I’d prefer the representatives choose the candidates rather than the DNC which is a political machine and would probably feel they needed to choose the sitting VP.
Garfield
Moulton
H, are you terribly busy for the next 4 years?
+1
I would put Jamie Dimon on the list…
Love the idea of Harris (former Attorney General of CA) “debating” Trump. I can see the promos: “Cop vs. Con,” or “Kamala prosecutes Trump.” Of course he’d avoid the encounter but she’d have free rein to talk about his fear/hate/misuse of women. On a different prosecutorial note, I don’t know why this isn’t talked about more often with respect to Trump – prosecutors/cops know that when the facts are not on a suspect’s side the suspect attacks the accuser – it’s an easy tell….
Think Biden needs to be replaced…I didn’t think he should run 4 years ago but since he got in I was willing to roll with him, but last night’s fiasco is clear evidence that it’s too much for him at this point in his life, and the Dems need someone else to fight the last fight for democracy, the planet, women’s rights / healthcare, personal integrity, etc, imho… guessing the Dem Mega donors will have to be the ones who bring about the change…the country, younger voters deserve much better at this point…im pretty demoralized and depressed after last night…just a completely wasted opportunity to knock down Trump, instead the reverse happened as Trump came off looking more competent despite his treason, criminality and grandiose and delusional thinking…
At first I was horrified last night watching the debate, then I realized it was so bad maybe we can move on. Booker and Cuban would be my choice
VP Harris aside, one of the reasons nothing will change is that it quickly becomes clear that you are saying Biden has to go as a candidate, then you are also going to have to ask if he must resign. Because you would have to say “no—he’s fine for six months, just not after that,” which is absurd. You are essentially arguing for a Woodrow Wilson scenario
The other problem is everyone that has argued he is fine for months is going to have to essentially say they lied for months. Pushing him out now means an admission that they’ve been lying this entire time. The worst thing people in politics can do is admit the truth.
I’m a bit surprised why Biden not even “being there” (having sufficient remaining mental acuity) in last night’s debate is much of a surprise. (And don’t forget last night was probably better than his usual ‘current self’.) The bigger surprise is, quite frankly, that this his performance is even seen as surprising. The vastness of the echo chamber that is capable of suggesting 4 more years for someone so far into age-related decline should be an occasion for self-reflection. That echo chamber, and those sucked into it, is what should be most surprising. What drives such an illusion?
Americans have been lamenting the choice they’ve been presented with: Traitor Trump vs Declining Biden. Perhaps out of this disaster comes opportunity. Perhaps the near-certainty of a Biden loss will jolt the Democratic Party into playing the role of savior of American Democracy by choosing someone under the age of 70 to run against Trump. Imagine how energizing that will be to previously-undecided voters. And the message of the new candidate, whoever it is, should be the following: I am running to heal America. The theme of my administration will not be to dramatically turn the country left or right, but to strengthen the institutions and conventions that allow us function as a country and as a democracy.”
Jared Polis?