Micron And The Great Expectations Trade
Generally speaking, you should be able to venture a good guess as to whether high profile companies are likely to rally or sell off post-earnings based on the magnitude of any beats or misses in the context of the current zeitgeist.
That latter bit -- about contextualizing the scope of beats and misses by the prevailing market mood -- is key. That's why I italicized it.
If you're a macro bellwether and everyone's convinced a recession's coming, an in-line guide might be good for a respectable
“If you’re going to spew, spew into this” holds up folded dixie cup
One of my favorite films
Everything has sped up. “Investors” now are demanding instant gratification on theme trades. While many guys hope for that when dating, it’s pretty silly when it comes to investing in long-term ideas, yes-no? .
Wish it was up ten but cant complain overall. Sanjay had some good propaganda in there but ive noticed over the years he has a degree of restraint in his stock pumping tactics. Theyll be ok.
In my mind, chips always become a commodity (remember SanDisk?) Once the data centers are built and equipped with chips, demand will plummet and software will take the baton back. Chip prices will plummet, and the next data centers will only be upgrading much more slowly than this initial compute build. And it’s possible a different chip designer will take meaningful market from NVDA.
Agree. For me, Nvidia is the camera and in the long run AI is all about the film = software.
MU is interesting. I bought it at pretty much the bottom, because when growth, earnings, EBIT, gross margin, capex cuts, everything are horrifically negative and getting worse, that’s when you buy memory semis.
You sell memory semis when everything is terrifically positive and getting better, so I took trims after the quick double and have been holding reduced positions, trying to figure out if the transcendence of AI will change the deep cyclical character of memory semis. Thinking I’m getting closer to a conclusion.
The next question, of course, is whether other semis that are less cyclical but still cyclical have had their characters changed.
Even with a seemingly powerful, logical and long-term tailwind, chips will remain somewhat cyclical. Similar to robotics & automation stocks.
Chips have the added burden of being incredibly capital-intensive relative to most other products. Expansion often leads to over-capacity in the sector.
It brings to mind the swings you see in the mining sector. It’s really no different than chips. You’ll always need copper/lithium etc but demand is NOT infinite, at least in the short run, which is all investors seem to care about these days.
How big will AI be, most certainly more than blockchain (if I recall early predictions were pretty phenomenal yet there is really only bitcoin to hang your hat on). Some form of AI will most certainly be used in every midsize and above company. Is it another nice tool like CRM or ERP, or will it be something magnitudes larger giving outsize returns for companies beyond the AI infrastructure providers.