Have US Jobless Claims Reached An Inflection Point?
After innumerable head fakes, it looks as though initial jobless claims in the US have moved definitively higher.
Although headline claims undershot expectations again in Thursday's update, they nevertheless remained north of 230,000.
I want to be careful not to overstate the case. Claims are down 10,000 over the last two weeks, erasing most of the jump which pushed the headline to 243,000. And 233,000 -- the latest print -- was a three-week low.
That said, the four-week moving average is now
Seems continuing claims are the bigger story. Initial claims are seeing the same drift higher we saw a yr ago (they’re down y/y) making it seem like it may be more of a seasonal adjustment issue than anything (non-adjusted they’re in line with last year (as well as 2018 & 2019)?
While I’ve certainly done my share of ranting about what I’m seeing from the trenches of long-term unemployment in comments here, the mystic in me also likes to read the signs and portents. Here’s this week’s tea leaves: This week I picked up my first new cold-call client in a year and a half—first time since January 2023 somebody has googled for a consultant in my specialty, found me, and had a project for me (and only the second new small project from any source in that whole time… my gross income for the past 14 months has been less than one month’s rent, it’s been harrowing.) Small job, an area one-man print shop needs a little project done. Here’s the weird thing, though: he wasn’t concerned about cost. He didn’t even ask me what my rate was. He wanted a ballpark figure, but he didn’t care all that much, he came in sure that he wanted the project done before we ever talked about cost. It’s the first business conversation I’ve had in well over a year that didn’t involve somebody fretting about money one way or another.
Hopefully it’s an auspicious sign.
Either way, everybody’s entitled to their own opinion, but I have lost any semblance of faith that the official numbers mean a thing.