‘Three Potential Candidates’ To Break The Bullish Tape
The stock market's not the economy. And the economy's not the stock market.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is "fond" of saying that.
The fact that the economy and the stock market are as disconnected as they often are is a testament to a lot of things, not least of which is the institution (several decades ago) of unapologetic shareholder capitalism.
The only stakeholders who matter in American-style capitalism are the stock owners, which means profit maximization trumps every other considerati
Socrates might be considered an idiot by some, as he readily admitted the constraints of his knowledge … being with idiots like these, well … priceless.
Wilson’s #1 does seem not the base case in the very near term. With house prices rising again and rents bottoming, I’m watching for #1 to become more worrisome by year-end.
As for #2, mindful of the historic low vol dynamics that McEligot etc have noted, some sort of a market shock seems a material and growing risk. I’ll nominate AI disappointment, CRE knock-on through banks, and November as candidates.
This idiot thinks and worries most about an MBS, Putin, Houthi, Netanyahu induced oil price shock during Election Year 2024; with a major destabilizing economic and market (they can be and work tandem too…!) … result…