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Six Reasons To Doubt The Fed Dots
The market doesn't believe the Fed's new dot plot.
At the June FOMC, the Committee narrowly tipped just a single rate cut for 2024, an ostensibly hawkish lean, at least in the near-term.
From December, the median 2024 marker hinted at a trio of likely cuts this year. The market took that and ran with it, betting on as many as half a dozen reductions, until a succession of inflation overshoots and a generally robust economy supported by steady job gains undercut (no pun intended) those bets.
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As do many, I live, breath and dream about the dot plots. A second quarter point rate cut would have a massive positive impact on corporate earnings, right?
I wonder if the Fed ever looks at this “Common Man” index of inflation for both staples and also discretionary items? I am attaching an outdated post of this index (because my ability to find an updated version came up with nothing), but the point is that inflation is running much higher for the “common man” than the regularly reported indexes indicate.
https://www.strategasrp.com/Document/DownloadPDF?strResearchProductID=gVLXKpSphr%2Fno%2FlKrByKog%3D%3D
This might argue against the belief that some people have regarding the Fed being behind on lowering interest rates.