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Sorry, Cam Harvey
Way back two weeks ago, I took a few minutes to editorialize around what I called the "forever inversion."
The US 2s10s inverted two years ago in what should've been an inauspicious macro development. Although growth did contract a second consecutive quarter right around the time of the original inversion, no one -- not even committed bears -- thought that was the recession. The "big one," as it were, was still several quarters away. Or so the story went. And so the curve foretold.
But that st
The larger surprise for me is how well the bond market is handling new supply as the Fed withdrew their support. Even with reports that Japan sold treasuries to fund FX intervention and rumors that our friends in China were/are doing the same.
That’s the biggest “whodathunkit” in my mind.