Dead Canary

I don't want to overstate the significance of any one data point or US macro release, particularly not when the monthly jobs report could upend the narrative anew, but between Monday's ISM manufacturing miss and Tuesday's update on job openings, the odds of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 were meaningfully higher. Consider this: With Tuesday's revisions to March's job openings tally, unfilled positions are down 754,000 in two months. That's a pretty big drop considering how far the series had already

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3 thoughts on “Dead Canary”

The risk of “stagflation” talk rises too.

I thought it telling that Bostic was out the other day (yesterday?) saying the Fed wouldn’t wait till its preferred measure fell to 2% to start cutting.

I kind of work more on the assumption that : news is good news, whether good or bad.
Worst case it seems, for a few weeks, or a few months, markets will go down. But then, it’ll come back up.