Here’s What Hedge Funds Are Up To

Regular readers are all too familiar with my opinion of hedge funds and active management in general: Paying someone to gamble your money on a fool’s errand is a profoundly silly proposition.

I say that knowing full well that my audience is comprised in no small part of money managers and the good folks on Wall Street who service their prime brokerage needs, among other “God’s work.”

I’d apologize, but I’m not sorry. The fact is, anyone with a college education and a willingness to read a Jack Bogle book (or two) can successfully manage their own money. You don’t need an actively-managed anything, and if you have any sense about you at all, you’ll stay as far away from hedge funds as you possibly can. And even further away from the people who run them.

With that out of the way, Goldman published their latest hedge fund and mutual fund monitor last week. I forgot to mention it because… well, mostly because I don’t give a sh–t, but also because there were a lot other things going on. For example, America’s last (and maybe next) president became a convicted felon.

All derisive humor aside (and I do hope some of the above elicited a chuckle or two), there were a few notable highlights from Goldman’s quarterly compendium, which the bank’s David Kostin editorialized around and otherwise expanded on with the help of data from Goldman’s prime desk.

The figure on the left, below, shows that net leverage is up meaningfully in 2024 and now sits in the 92%ile over the past year (even as we’re obviously nowhere close to the exposure peaks witnessed during the go-go days of 2021). The same chart also shows mutual funds’ cash position is the lowest on record.

The figure on the right gives you a sense of Magnificent 7 representation in large-cap mutual funds and hedge fund equity portfolios relative to the Russell 3000.

“At the stock level, hedge funds added to AAPL but trimmed positions on net in GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, MSFT, and META in Q1,” Goldman noted. Mutual funds cut their positions in all Magnificent 7 stocks. As Kostin reminded investors, mutual fund Underweights in the market leadership “are largely attributable to the stocks’ large weights in benchmark indices and mutual fund diversification requirements.”

As you might’ve heard, Utilities are seen as an AI trade now, and that idea’s occurred to both hedge funds and mutual funds. “A large amount of power is required to run and train AI models, and many portfolio managers view Utilities as a clear expression of the AI power theme,” Kostin remarked.

As the figure shows, both hedge funds and mutual funds increased their exposures to Utilities to new highs this year. Hedge funds were (past tense) 76bps Underweight the sector. Now they’re 75bps Overweight.

At the single-stock level, hedge funds and mutual funds exhibited a shared affinity for DHR, FI, KKR, MA, UBER, V and VRT. If you’re curious as to whether “shared favorites,” as Goldman calls them, have outperformed historically, the answer’s not really. Technically, “shared favorites” tracked by Goldman outperformed the broad market 64% of the time looking back a decade, but how meaningful is that? (“60% of the time, it works every time.”)

Other highlights included some agreement between hedge funds and mutual funds on Health Care and Info Tech as well as a shared pro-cyclical tilt.

Oh, and if you’re curious as to what kind of performance you’re missing out on by not having access to “all the best people,” as Donald Trump might put it, Goldman’s prime desk estimates US equity fundamental long/short hedge funds have returned +7% YTD, just 350bps (plus fees) behind the S&P, which you can track for — checks notes — three basis points at Vanguard. As for mutual funds, 42% of large-cap funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD. Golf clap.

The updated Goldman hedge fund VIP list is below.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

4 thoughts on “Here’s What Hedge Funds Are Up To

  1. As someone whose background involves the energy sector, the idea that hedge funds are long utes as an expression of what’s basically “Long Load Growth” makes me want to both laugh and cry. You want to know if electric utilities are making profits? Look at NG. Higher NG = higher profits. It’s counter-intuitivie, but it’s because NG sets the marginal price of power a high percentage of the time. Utilities are long baseload–whether it’s coal, or nuclear, or hyrdro, or these days, on-peak solar. All the while, combined-cycle gas generators are the marginal megawatt, so they set the price, and if NG is sitting around the all-time lows (as it is right now), it doesn’t matter how fast load is growing, the price of power is in the shitter, and so are utilities’ margins.

    The amount of my life I spent watching these numbers on a 5 second refresh… woof. https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/ops-analysis/dispatch-rates

    1. I do not know but it would seem to me that training could be done during periods of excess power. Be that wind, solar or some combination.

      However I have heard rumors of crypto miners buying nuclear, coal and hydro assets. I have also seen how these assets can be paired with solar and short duration batteries to provide reliable power. I am curious of any take in the energy transition and how customers and productions assets are paired real time.

      I do not know if these trends are enough to effect NG pricing as you suggest was certainly reality a few years ago. However are utilities making money with all the solar they added? The installed base is still a small amount of solar, but additions of solar are significant.

      1. Depreciation and the “model race” run 24/7 so there’s incentive to keep the GPUs running around the clock.

        One trader theme is micro-reactors co-located with data centers. How realistic this is, I don’t know.

        Renewables have been a frustrating investment theme over the past few years. (See TAN chart.) Maybe it’s bottomed out.

        1. Micro reactors are an extremely expensive way to go and depreciate over 30+ years, if you can wait 20 years for the power. If cost is truly not the issue, Maybe more cost effective to use oil fired simple cycle to produce peak power for 1-3 years during the race.

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon