I Was Told There Would Be Rate Cuts

We've come a long way since late November. Six whole months, in fact. Half a year ago tomorrow, Chris Waller said he was "increasingly confident" that Fed policy was "well-positioned" to slow the US economy and "get inflation back to 2%." During the same fateful remarks to the American Enterprise Institute, Waller said he could see the Fed starting to cut rates in "three months, four months [or] five months." Contingent, of course, on inflation outcomes. At the time, the market was priced for