Israel’s War Cabinet Is In Denial
Israel needs to agree to a permanent ceasefire with Hamas in exchange for the remaining hostages, then announce a withdrawal from Gaza contingent on a US-brokered, binding accord with regional powers to step in and guarantee security in the enclave. Qatar would provide funds for reconstruction.
Hamas is now resurfacing in Gaza City and Khan Younis, where Yahya Sinwar is thought to be barricaded as many as 200 feet underground surrounded by Israeli hostages, unreachable for all intents and purpo
War is still ongoing in Syria, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, and many other places we entered and left as noisy losers. Everyone in these places is losing in one way or another and will be until civilization ends later this century.
Politico’s National Security news letter had an interview with Bafel Talabani, leader of an Iraqi Kurdish organization. He’s in Washington to talk about counter-terrorism issues, but the interview inevitably turned towards the war in Gaza. His take seems to largely align with the article above. It’s definitely helpful to hear things from a Middle Eastern perspective now and then. A brief excerpt:
Do you see American troops in the Middle East coming under threat again?
A lot depends on what happens in Gaza. I don’t see any immediate threat to U.S. troops. But you know, things could change. This Rafah stuff is really concerning.
Has the war in Gaza affected your work? What are the global implications of the war?
Massively, colossally. What the United States and the Western allies need to be aware of is that an entire generation of Arabs and Muslims are growing to be untrusting and have a hatred toward the West. This is happening even in really West-friendly places like Kurdistan — there is a massive shift in public opinion … it will take generations to erase this newfound opinion of the West.
The principle of destroying Hamas is false. It’s impossible … I think Hamas, or whatever comes after Hamas, the membership of this organization will be more.
That will not be helped by the former/next President’s betrayal of the Kurds through his “brilliant” agreement with Erdogan to give Turkey the green luck to massacre our allies, the Kurds, in Syria.
I wish this had an edit function.
It’s worth mentioning given the number of times I’ve heard the argument, that the US almost surely wouldn’t respond to a hypothetical attack from Mexico in the same way Israel responded in Gaza. Let’s say Mexican drug cartels launched a cross-border attack and killed 10,000 Americans. I’m not sure why they’d do that, but let’s just pretend. Would the US military launch a full-scale invasion of Mexico and proceed to slaughter 1.3 million Mexicans over the ensuing six months? i.e., 1% of all Mexicans? We could. There wouldn’t be anything they could do about it. And we could argue that the government in Mexico is beholden to the cartels. Because it is. But no. We surely wouldn’t do that. In fact, when you actually think about that argument for even a few seconds, it’s a completely ridiculous proposition.
As an aside, election season in Mexico is absolutely wild this year. Nearly 3 dozen candidates for various offices have been assassinated. So far. Election day isn’t until June 2. Can you imagine wanting to run for office there?
The comparison isn’t perfect by any stretch, but Mexico is a narco state, and it’s not a big leap from that to a narco-terror state. You just need the terror. The government’s corrupt at pretty much every level to a greater or lesser degree. And depending on where you are in Mexico, the locals absolutely support the cartels, at least to the extent the bosses are community benefactors. So, you know, if there was a cross-border attack, you could make a Gaza-like case for a military response. But there’s no universe in which that response would constitute a full-on invasion, let alone an occupation, and there’s no universe in which the US kills 1.3 million Mexicans in pursuit of 50,000 cartel members (or whatever) and 10 bosses. All of that to say I don’t think that argument (which you hear again and again from apologists for the IDF’s war conduct) holds up.
There used to be a terrible network show called “Hack.” I never watched it, but it became “popular” as sort of a comic meme in some circles. The premise of the show was that a disgraced cop leaves the force and becomes a taxi driver, but continues to unofficially practice law enforcement as a measure of atonement. But one of the recurring tag lines in promos for the show was that Hack (the disgraced cop) had to “become” like the criminal he was chasing in order to catch him. And so one of the many resulting “jokes,” was that in order to catch a rapist, Hack had to first become a rapist. Off-color, I admit, but still an accurate description of the show, and likely more entertaining.
I haven’t thought about that show in a while, but every time I hear Netanyahu talk about ridding Gaza of “terrorists,” I am drawn to think he must have been a fan.
I’m a bit hesitant to answer since we haven’t yet finished our previous convo… but here goes…
You say it’s impossible… Yet after 9/11, where a small group of terrorists based in Afghanistan killed 3,000 people (not 10k, though I’ll concede I don’t think that matters as much as people say). But when you did, you didn’t just pursue AQ/Bin Laden. No, you decided that the government of Afghanistan was guilty by association (not wrong but the relationship Afghan gvt/AQ was obviously looser than Gaza leadership/Hamas where they are one and the same) and you invaded the whole country, butchering, okay, a lot less than 1% of the pop. directly (70k “only” vs a 1% threshold of 400k, though I’m not sure about the indirect death toll). OTOH, you lost that war.
But also – Afghanistan is far and not a credible on-going threat to the US civilian pop. I would argue Oct 7th showed the Israelis underestimated Hamas at significant cost…
I’m not sure what you mean by “we haven’t finished our previous convo.” All convos with me are finished when I remind myself that I’m arguing with people I’ll never meet in an online message forum, which is one definition of insanity in the internet era. The fact that it’s my message forum doesn’t make it any less insane. Whenever that starts, I go outside and run a couple of miles and then I’m over it.
Wise attitude.
Still, it can kind of feels different on a small forum like this one, with repeated interactions. You can get a sense of someone’s personality and internet ‘friendship’ do exist.
Going out for a run – I suppose that’s better than missing the turn off for the gun range and, instead, driving over to the mall and pondering whether you want to be featured on the evening news at 6:00.
From the Feb. 25, 2024 Wall Street Journal article ‘Mexico’s Hugs, Not Bullets Crime Policy Spreads Grief, Murder and Extortion’: “Most of the disputes involve the Sinaloa or Jalisco cartels, among the world’s largest criminal organizations and the top traffickers of fentanyl—the low-cost, high-margin synthetic opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans a year.”
There’s your 10,000 dead Americans – on a recurring yearly basis no less. So, there is no need to pretend. The drums of war are getting louder every year. When the time is right, due to an economic depression or politicians in need of a distraction, we will do what we always do and invade. The Mexicans will fight back and civilians will perish on both sides. It’s who we are and we are incapable of redemption. The list of “completely ridiculous propositions” during my lifetime includes the Formosa Crisis, Bay of Pigs, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, Lebanon, Libya, Grenada, Andean Initiative in War on Drugs, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq and list goes on and on and on with conflicts and clandestine incursions that the general public doesn’t even remember. We’ve been to the halls of Montezuma and we’ll be back in due time.
Remember Ron DeSantis, the “moderate” Trump so many captains of finance were throwing money at?
“DeSantis: I’d strike drug cartels in Mexico ‘on day one’”
“Asked by Fox News’ MARTHA MacCALLUM if he would support sending U.S. special forces over the border to take out fentanyl labs and disrupt cartel operations, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS replied: “Yes, and I will do it on day one.”
“When I talk about using the military to take on the drug cartels because they’re killing tens of thousands of our citizens,” the second-highest polling Republican later told SEAN HANNITY, “we have every right to do it, I’m going to do it. I’m not just going to get into office and say ‘forget about it.’”
Yasser Arafat had an opportunity to “do right” for the Palestinian people. However, just because Arafat killed that possibility- it is absolutely time to resurrect that proposal, along with the threat of a “big stick” to be used against the Palestinians if they attack Israel.
OK – speaking only from a fact-checkable memory, Arafat has widely been credited with turning down a peace plan. That is something he later said he had come to regret. A little too late.
But it is probably wrong to heap all of the blame on the inventor of the popular three-days-unshaven look. I recall White House insiders lamenting that the two sides were so close, but neither one would give in on a last bit of West Bank territory to be retained by Israel.
The unbridgeable difference?? Something like 13.4 versus 13.6% of West Bank territory.
Neither side would give in on that .2%. Perhaps it’s human nature bolstered by a shared Middle Eastern bazaar culture? If that is only partly correct, what hope is there for any kind of negotiated agreement in the region?
The situation has to get so bad that both sides see a two state solution as the best path forward.