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Fait Accompli
I was having a pretty hard time pretending to care about the Bank of England on Thursday. Fortunately, Andrew Bailey gave me a hook.
A rate cut next month isn't a "fait accompli," Bailey remarked, following another on-hold meeting at which Dave Ramsden joined Swati Dhingra in a dovish dissent. Nor, Bailey said, is a cut "ruled out."
The implication's clear enough: With the hawkish dissents having disappeared in March and with the forward guidance now asymmetrically skewed towards easing, the J
It looks like we are going to see cuts in both BOE and ECB in June. A surprise cut at the Fed in June or July cannot be ruled out. It is not bad to have an inflation and rate outlook for central banks going out 3 years. The crime is relying on it or having a lot of confidence in that outlook. Confidence should be pretty high for 3 months. That’s about it.