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The ‘Dumb Money’ Just Turned Bearish
When you lose the retail crowd...
For 23 consecutive weeks, the spread between professed bulls and bears in AAII's individual investor survey sat above the long-term average.
That streak came to an end last week, when the S&P 500 suffered its worst selloff since 2023's regional banking drama. Nevertheless, the bull share was still higher than the bear share, making 24 consecutive weeks of a positive spread.
As of this week, that streak's over too. Although the bear share was actually a ti
Today’s tape definitely has a “gamma gravity” feel to it.
Updated earnings tracking. 27% of S&P 500 has reported 1Q24.
Weighted by market cap, 62% beat 1Q rev cons, 87% beat 1Q EPS cons, 39% saw 2Q rev cons rise, 40% saw 2Q rev cons rise, average price reaction +0.5%.
Unweighted, 57% beat 1Q rev cons, 80% beat 1Q EPS cons, 42% saw 2Q rev cons rise, 41% saw 2Q rev cons rise, average price reaction +0.0% (+0.03% to be more precise).
(“Price reaction” is price change from report date -1 to report date +1. Using a two-day period is crude but simpler than dealing with the pre-market reporters differently than the after-market reporters.)
Looking at consensus S&P 500 index estimates over the past two weeks (4/12 to 4/24).
For CY2024E, sales/share has gone down a tiny bit ($1918.06 to $1917.90) and EPS up a tiny bit ($241.37 to $241.70).
For C2Q24E, in the past two weeks sales/share has gone up a tiny bit ($471.69 to $471.94) and EPS up a tiny bit ($59.21 to $59.31).
Over that period (4/12 to 4/24) the S&P 500 index is down 1.6%.
Lots of drama at single-stock level, less so on zoomed out view.