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Another Backdoor Yellen Equity Put May Be Just A Week Away
Earlier this week, I took a few minutes to put readers to sleep by revisiting the term premium discussion.
Long story short, it (the term premium) moved back into positive territory recently amid a pretty sharp selloff across the US rates complex, which is trying to price both a prolonged stay at terminal for the Fed (a front-end story) and perpetual "fiscal dominance" (a longer-end story with ramifications for the front-end via the monetary policy read-through of an economy high on budget prof
Equity market volatility appears to be falling back as well.
Not only were tax receipts higher than expected- if my dad’s situation (solely invested in Treasuries and CDs) is an indicator of what quarterly estimated tax payments will look like for the remainder of 2024, then tax receipts could be up 50% over what was remitted quarterly in 2023.
If PCE comes in close to estimates, a smaller than expected refunding announcement could be the next catalyst for a summer rally.
What does it mean for main street? And Biden’s presidential hopes?
Nothing.
Yellen’s bag of tricks is running out of magic
Don’t apologize for commenting on how the machine works, it’s part of navigating the markets…