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They Rang A Bell
I say this all the time and now seems like a good time to reiterate the point: The risk of clinging to bearish price targets for equity benchmarks in a melt-up is that by the time you get the shoulder tap, the correction you've been wrong about is usually just around the corner.
You know that, of course, which is why you clung to the bearish view in the first place. And that's what makes the whole endeavor so maddening. You look like a stubborn fool on the way up and then when you finally capit
The Wells Fargo update came across like a hostage video. The rationalization for the high(est) street call is a string of hard-to-justify speculation. “Recently… markets were pulling forward expectations, trading on the next year… so we’re going to take a crazy high multiple and apply that to 2025 forecast earnings because… please don’t hurt me.”
I’d bet dollars to donuts there was an executive bloviating, “SocGen and BofA got all this attention for raising their targets. Let’s do that too! Let’s go higher than anyone! Let’s get some all-caps heads on bbg!!!1”
Harvey tried to talk him down… “Those kind of numbers would be impossible to justify!” Executive: I’m sure if you tried hard enough you can find a way. Harvey: Yeah, but it wouldn’t be realistic. Executive: And here I thought you liked your job. Was I mistaken?
The note might as well have ended with, “I have full confidence in these wildly speculative rationalizations for our call, and please tell my wife and children that I love them very much and hope nothing bad ever happens to them.”