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Wilson Sees Turning Point. Says ‘Rates Matter For Stocks Again’
Stocks are concerned about rates again.
That's according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. Mike's a bear, generally speaking. Spare a thought.
Wilson's latest trod familiar territory. For weeks, he's argued the veritable chasm which opened up this year between equities and rates might eventually "resolve" in lower stocks or at least in multiple compression. The moment for such a resolution might be nigh, he suggested on Monday.
The five-month equity rally (one of the most pronounced in recent
In the context of the distinction between the change and the rate of change in rates, I note that (for 10y) the 3m rate of change of rates is much faster than the 6m rate of change due to the dip at the end of last year going into this year. So over the last 6 months, yields on 10s are comparatively little changed, but over just the last 3 months, they have backed up about 70 bps. Curious what Morgan’s Ex 6 above might look like using a 3 month period rather than 6 months.