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The Mighty Bull Staggers: War Worry, Fed Angst Undercut Rally
Markets were jittery on the heels of a weekend defined by terrifying headlines out of the Middle East, where Israel had to be talked out of escalating what, as of April 13, is state-on-state conflict with Iran.
That's never really happened before. Until two days ago, Iran fought Israel (and everyone else for that matter) by proxy -- through the IRGC's surrogate in Lebanon, the Quds' pet armies in Iraq and "a bunch of goat herders" in Yemen, as US Senator Tom Cotton indelicately referred to the
No war between Iran and Israel. The mullahs don’t want it and the Israelis can’t afford it (in terms of loss of Biden administration support). Now, U.S. consumers spending like the economy ain’t so bad after all is another thing entirely. Will be interesting to see whether earnings hold up.
6.5% Fed Funds Rate for sure…
My fingers are crossed (toes, too.)
Classic, since one of the few definitive things Jerome Powell has uttered (and repeated) since the beginning of the year is that it is “likely” that we’ve reached the peak in terminal rates (i.e., no more references to possible “additional policy firming”). Ooops. That was probably true until he dared to say it plainly. Maybe Powell can leave the SEP in his briefcase and get one of the homeless people he drives past each day to explain how jinxes work.