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Throat Punch: Fed Plans Derailed As CPI Torches Doves Again
Bad news! Underlying inflation in the US overshot expectations for a third consecutive month in March, vexing data released on Wednesday showed.
Core price growth ran 0.4% last month, ahead of the 0.3% consensus and a throat punch to the so-called "whisper" number, which was leaning towards a 0.2% undershoot.
The unrounded print was 0.359%. If you're the glass half-full type, you might argue this was another "cool" 0.4%, but spin aside, March marked the third consecutive (rounded) 0.4% MoM gai
It’s difficult to envision a rate cut period this year.
Agreed. Based on 1Q data, greater chance of a rate hike(s) before year-end.
Hard to believe the Fed would cut rates going into the elections unless the data was undeniably supportive of a cut.
How many more months of too-high inflation will it take to entirely erase the market’s remaining rate cut expectations? I’ll guess one + extrapolation.
In 2024, US government spending is expected to be $2.8T in excess of taxes. This is not sustainable without ongoing inflation that “bites hard”.
My kids are all college (STEM) educated, job hopping where they can (to make more money), and attempting to live below their means: tiny and/or older apartments, not eating out, driving older cars, increasing deductibles on their car insurance, etc. It spite of being willing to “delay gratification”, it is questionable whether that day of gratification will ever be available to them- saving enough money to buy a house, having enough money to raise children and living the type of life they lived growing up (we were upper middle class). They regularly talk about how impossible it is for them to have an achievable financial plan to achieve this in a reasonable time period.
When I graduated from college (mid 80’s)- it was not difficult to put together a financial plan to be upwardly mobile/financially better off than my parents (middle class). Now, that goal seems much more difficult to achieve, let alone have as a reasonable goal.
And my kids are fortunate compared to the vast majority.