Not Cutting It?

The Fed may not cut rates this year.

So intimated Neel Kashkari on Thursday, when markets heard from a veritable procession of Fed speakers, all of whom were careful to emphasize that the rate cuts tipped by the March dot plot are entirely (or at least mostly) contingent on additional disinflation progress.

Kashkari said he “jotted down two rate cuts” for 2024 last month. But that was based on the assumption inflation “continues to fall back towards our 2% target.” If, by contrast, inflation were to “mov[e] sideways,” Kashkari said that’d “make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all.”

To be clear, the Fed’s going to cut this year. Probably even in a scenario where inflation moves “sideways,” as Kashkari put it. And with Jerome Powell on the record this week essentially saying the Fed’s top brass still sees a path to three reductions, it doesn’t so much matter what the other disparate voices say. In addition, I’ve argued that two cuts versus three in 2024 is a distinction without a difference to the extent the Fed’s still cutting rates into a robust economy, which is self-evidently bullish.

And yet, stocks may be reaching the limits in terms of what they’re willing to happily countenance in terms of receding rate-cut pricing. With that in mind, find a very brief compendium of notable quotes from the rest of April 4’s Fedspeak cacophony below.

My overall assessment is that [inflation overshoots in January and February] should not knock us off the path back to target. Based on market data on rents for new leases, I have been expecting [housing inflation] to come down more quickly than it has. If it does not come down, we will have a very difficult time getting overall inflation back to the 2% target. — Austan Goolsbee

We have time for the clouds to clear before beginning the process of toggling rates down. No one wants inflation to reemerge. — Tom Barkin

I expect us to be in a position to cut rates later this year. We need more progress on housing and core services inflation. — Loretta Mester

We’re not where we need to be. Inflation’s still too high. — Patrick Harker


 

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2 thoughts on “Not Cutting It?

  1. Hypothetical – if this month you could see all rate cut expectations wrung out of the market (i.e. zero cuts implied) at the cost of giving up a few percentage points off the S&P 500’s YTD run, would you take that deal?

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