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Stocks May Face Come-To-Jesus Moment In US Jobs Report
Early this week, I suggested US equities might be disquieted by a backup in rates in the event yields rose too far, too fast.
The occasion was a double-digit basis point cheapening from the seven-year sector on out the curve catalyzed by the first expansion-territory ISM print since September of 2022.
The surprisingly robust read on US factory activity rekindled the "no landing" narrative, which is synonymous with a "good news is bad news" macro-market regime.
Fast forward to Tuesday, and sto
Another way to look at it – if one thought market pricing for six cuts was implausible, that created elevated expectations risk, and as market pricing for cuts declines, that risk declines. If market pricing moves all the way to no cuts, that may create expectations opportunity.