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‘One Day Out Of The Blue’
As the book closed on a second consecutive stellar quarter for equities, the bear case was imprecise to the point of being nebulous.
"It just might come one day out of the blue," JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas told clients during a web event this week.
"It" was a drawdown. Or, more to the point, "it" would be a drawdown. We're dealing in hypotheticals here. Stocks are perched at or near record highs, and those who, like Lakos-Bujas, remain wedded to a bearish outlook are hard pressed on some
If we want lower inflation then globally and especially in the US, we need to pump more oil- to drop the price.
The rate of inflation will drop but the rate at which we are polluting /destroying Earth will increase.
Regardless, we need to speed up our endeavors for clean fuel.
A lower price for oil might also push Putin and other crazies back in their box (see editorial in WSJ yesterday).
Synchronized global rate cut cycle coming (or started, ref SNB), US economic growth reasonably positive, SP500 earnings estimates stabilized (not going down), market broadening, signif areas of reasonable valuation (SPY 21X PE NTM, but RSP is 17X, MDY 16X), bear narratives dwindling, SP500 chart like a ruler . . .
We do have 1Q earnings risk period coming up soon.
I am keeping an eye on IWM.
Looking at YOY earnings growth, SPY hit trough negative a couple qtrs ago and looks a qtr from going positive. MDY and IWM look to be at trough negative now, so earlier in inflection process. This is simplistic but anyway downcap looks more and more interesting.
Perhaps a one day event will be on November 5. Propelled by the mass of Americans who believe conspiracy theories about the JS Key Bridge accident. What hope does this country have?
From MSNBC (yeah, I know) citing right wing pundits and media.
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/baltimore-key-bridge-collapse-conspiracy-theories-rcna145340