US Inflation Update To Show Stalled Progress In Holiday Week
It's a holiday week in the US, but the schedule's pretty full and includes an update on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which'll garner whatever limited attention it's possible to command considering it'll be released on Good Friday.
The story's exhaustingly familiar by now: The "median" Fed official's still inclined to cut rates three times in 2024, and some critics think that's incongruous with inflation realities, which suggest underlying price growth may well settle above 2%. Some argu
There is a difference between counting every tick and wisdom. Unless you are Larry Summers, it is unwise to live and die on whether core is 2.8% or 2.5%. There are so many measurement problems that this type of difference does not matter. Take a quick look at the lagged effect of how rent and house price inflation is measured. On the flip side, mortgage rates are not an input on housing cost inflation. There are many other measurement problems. Does anyone think that insurance rates will be persistently increasing at high rates? There are problems both pushing inflation numbers higher and lower. It is a fool’s errand to target a discrete point. A range would be better. Like 1.5%-3% maybe. Better still would be to target nominal gdp.
Well said, sir!