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There’s A Bear In The Office
"So, welcome aboard! Oh, and by the way: You're not going to convince Albert. Don't try."
I don't know if new hires in SocGen's research department are duly apprised, but if they try to pitch the bank's most famous employee on a bull case for equities or a glass half-full assessment of the macro environment, they'll figure it out on their own, and pretty quickly.
On Wednesday, Albert Edwards explained, in simple terms, why sell-side economists are almost never ahead of the curve when it comes
One of the best features of this site, among many, are your summaries of interesting personalities in the investing community. What’s Mr. Hunt been up to since so glaringly missing the 2022 bond rout?
The jury is still out. Mr.Hunt was correct for 40 years only wrong because of unprecedented increase in rates increases in the short term.
A few points. One, my comment was much directed at how good it is of H to every now and then sprinkle in Messrs. Edwards, Hunt, Bassman, and others. Secondly, clearly the jury is still out. Mr. Hunt was strongly on Team transitory in 2022 and 2023. I have no idea where he is today. But he has been wrong the past couple of years and convincingly so. As far as being “right” for 40 years since the Volker rate peak, frankly, that was not a difficult call for many reasons, all of which make of the Great Moderation.
I really don’t want to get into whether Mr. Hunt was prescient, lucky, a combination, will be proven correct on Team Transitory, etc. I honestly just wonder what he has been prognosticating lately.
One of the main reasons I read H every day is because I enjoyed the same “luck” as Mr. Hunt. Since I plunged into bonds with as much leverage as I could stand, starting with early Volcker, I can now relax to a world of watchful waiting and this is the essential place to do just that. I have lots of of unrealized losses because I am finally weathering the effects of rate rises. But remember al loss in bonds is only real if you sell, which I will never do. Watchful waiting.
Im think both notes are right, as such:
After a little seasonal softness and messaging (in the form of lower equities and yields) to the Feds, the markets coax a rate hike out of the Fed in June. From which, equities pivot to resume a blow off top as peak earnings and AI euphoria leads a bunch of silliness in the market with S&P 500 breaching 5500 later fall, post election (regardless of election result).
Then some time next year we realize the recession started sometime this year. So yeah, 2007 to 2008 all over again.
For a dealer in hope, you seem fairly downbeat… 🙂
Like, what makes you say that recession has started? Consumption and employment seem strong in the USA…