“Financing conditions are restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping push down inflation,” the ECB reiterated Thursday, while keeping rates on hold, as expected.

That familiar, confident assessment regarding the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission channel in Europe makes for a rather stark contrast with the Fed’s somewhat belabored efforts to explain why aggressive rate hikes haven’t meaningfully curbed economic activity in the US. Suffice to say policy restriction has proven more impactful across the pond than it has across the world’s largest economy.

The new ECB staff projections found both the inflation and growth forecasts revised lower. Headline and core price growth will average 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively in 2024, the bank now expects, and 2% and 2.1% in 2025. The cooler headline projection for this year “mainly reflects a lower contribution from energy prices,” the new statement said, adding that while “most measures of underlying inflation have eased further, domestic price pressures remain high, in part owing to strong growth in wages.”

In other words: Policymakers are still concerned that wage-price dynamics could keep inflation elevated, particularly in services, but generally speaking, price growth is expected to remain at or near target from here on out.

Data released late last week showed headline inflation loitering just above 2%, while core ran at 3.1% in February. The familiar figure above is a reminder of how things unfolded in Europe.

In terms of the rate cut narrative, not a lot’s changed: The Governing Council wants to wait until June to start dialing it back and the market seems to be fine with that. There’s some risk that the ECB commences cuts and the Fed’s compelled to hold terminal in perpetuity amid stubborn inflation in the US and an unbowed American consumer bolstered by steady job gains and wage growth. You don’t want to get too far out of step with the Fed if you’re Christine Lagarde. That’d risk a weaker euro, capital flight and so on.

The new projections unveiled Thursday suggest growth in Europe will be just 0.6% in 2024. Economic activity, staff said, is “expected to remain subdued in the near-term.” Over the medium-term, growth should pick up to around 1.5% next year. There was no change to the forward guidance. The ECB retained language around keeping rates “at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.” Policy will be set based on the data and they’re “determined” to restore price stability.

Europe’s pretty much in a recession as it stands and frankly I don’t think there’s much risk of a rekindled inflation spiral barring some exogenous shock that drives up energy prices again. Although wage pressures could (and probably will) keep services inflation uncomfortably warm, the bloc’s not exactly famous for economic vibrancy, and Germany’s having a rough go of it.

As for the ECB’s balance sheet, the legacy portfolio (i.e., APP) continues to shrink at the same “measured and predictable pace,” while the PEPP book (assets purchased under the pandemic QE program) will begin to shrink in the back half of the year initially at €7.5 billion per month. PEPP reinvestments will cease altogether in 2025.

And that’s about it from the ECB, honestly. I could go on (and on), but after nearly a decade of writing for public consumption I can say, definitively, that the number of readers interested in the specifics of ECB policymaking is vanishingly small.