Inflation in the eurozone was a bit quicker than expected in February, data released on Friday showed.
At 2.6%, the headline YoY print was ahead of estimates, as was core at 3.1%. Headline inflation ran 2.7% in Germany last month, 2.9% in Spain and 3.1% in France.
To be sure, the overshoots on the bloc-wide gauges weren’t large (consensus was 2.5% for the all-items measure), but it’s not splitting hairs to point them out: The conversation at the ECB around when to start cutting rates will commence in earnest at next week’s meeting.
There’s no chance of a cut in March, but April’s gathering could be live, even if the Governing Council’s hawks would rather it wasn’t. Friday’s data argued against a quick pivot. The MoM readings weren’t especially encouraging. “Base effects did most of the heavy lifting,” ING’s Bert Colijn said. “Month-on-month seasonally adjusted rates are not showing much comfort for the ECB to cut rates imminently.”
Don’t get me wrong. Policymakers will take 2.6% after what Europe’s just been through, and the bloc’s in a mild recession, which suggests that even if wage-price spiral dynamics continue to put upward pressure on services costs, a lackluster overall growth impulse should insure against any serious re-acceleration barring, of course, another energy shock.
That said, the unemployment rate across the bloc is quite low. In fact, at 6.4%, the jobless rate in January was the lowest since the start of the eurozone. Considering the recessionary backdrop, that’s quite remarkable, and as ING’s Colijn went on to say, it could “add to wage pressures.” Services inflation ran at 3.9% YoY in February, Eurostat said.
The ECB’s last hike was in September. There’s no chance of a higher terminal rate this cycle. It’s just a matter of how long Christine Lagarde can hold on before commencing cuts. Policymakers seem to generally agree that June’s a good time to start dialing back restriction, but the market will continue to price some chance of an earlier move.
I don’t think there’s a lot of utility in editorializing any further around European inflation data on Friday to be completely honest with you. Nobody cares. If you think that’s a needlessly terse assessment at the end of week full of them, let me ask you this: Do you care? About Eurostat’s provisional February inflation update? No? Ok, well there you go.


