There was some hope that this week’s final US macro release would suggest America’s manufacturing malaise ended in February. Alas.

The ISM headline printed a decidedly underwhelming 47.8 on Friday, disappointing consensus which wanted 49.5 from the marquee survey.

The range of estimates was 47.8 to 51.5. An expansion-territory print would’ve been the first in 16 months. Instead, the headline matched the lowest estimate from more than five-dozen “experts.”

Meanwhile (and by contrast) the final reading on S&P Global’s US factory gauge for February was 52.2. That represented a meaningful upward revision from the flash print and counted as the best result since July of 2022.

So, US manufacturing either contracted for a 16th month in February or expanded at the quickest rate in 19 months. Depending on which survey you care to consult. I’ve got data jokes, folks. But you’ve heard enough of those this week and besides, they write themselves here.

ISM’s Tim Fiore said demand is “at the early stages of recovery.” And yet, the new orders gauge fell back into contraction at 49.2, so did production and the employment measure printed an unfortunate 45.9, the lowest since last summer. The prices paid gauge was basically unchanged.

Although none of that suggests anything like momentum, Fiore pointed to two key metrics. “The share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 was 1% in February, compared to 27% in January and 48% in December,” he said, adding that “among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP in February, none had a PMI at or below 45.” So that’s encouraging.

For his part, S&P Global’s Chris Williamson painted a pretty upbeat picture consistent with the better headline print. He also penned some decent color on the trade off between improving demand and prices, as well as the interplay with conflict-related supply chain pressures.

“Problems with shipping disruptions earlier in the year have eased, taking some pressure off input prices, though factory gate prices are recovering amid stronger customer demand,” Williamson said, adding that wholesale prices “will be an area to watch closely in the coming months as policymakers assess the appropriateness and timing of any interest rate cuts.”