Marko Kolanovic’s sticking with it, where “it” means a cautious approach to frothy markets.
In a Monday note, JPMorgan analysts led by Kolanovic reiterated that risk assets appear “priced to perfection,” where that means equities “reflect little risk” to earnings growth, profitability or the macro environment.
The bank’s latest remarks come on the heels of a high-profile piece from Kolanovic himself who on February 21 warned that the risk of a 1970s stagflation rerun is higher than a majority of market participants and economists are willing to admit.
Although the bank on Monday conceded that history evidences “no shortage of periods where stocks stayed overbought for long periods of time,” Kolanovic and co. repeated that in their view, “the current environment continues to leave us vulnerable to an accident.”
The figure below shows Magnificent 7 earnings growth versus the rest of the market.
Long story short, there is no growth outside of the chosen few.
“So currently, we have the uncomfortable choice of buying something already expensive albeit with good earnings growth, or something cheap, perhaps justifiably so with negative earnings growth,” Kolanovic wrote.
The bank cited various manifestations of “froth,” including the rally in Bitcoin. “There appears to be room for [speculative excess] to go further before we reach recent extremes, but thinking about how rising asset prices fits into the broader picture of central banks looking to cut rates, the effect is likely to make them even more wary given strong growth and inflation,” Kolanovic went on. “The worry is that premature rate cutting could feed into inflating asset prices further or cause another leg up in inflation.”
Kolanovic mentioned Chris Waller, who recently asked “What’s the rush?” referring to rate cuts. (I’d gently remind Waller that there was no rush in terms of markets pricing in cuts until he appeared to tip them four months ago in an epoch-making November 28 speech. Water under the bridge, I suppose.)
In any event, JPMorgan’s not ready to jump aboard the bullish bandwagon. “Investors may be assuming that the increase in yields [YTD] is reflective of economic acceleration, but earnings projections for 2024 are coming down and the market appears too complacent on the cycle,” the bank said.
Related: Marko And The Mortals, Revisited

