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Marko And The Mortals, Revisited
If you've been bearish (or "cautious" or "defensive") in the face of a rally that's gone on long enough for the financial media to make a story out of the disparity, you may be better off just sticking with it.
I've argued in recent days that the recession crowd was definitively wrong, as were bears in general, at least if the economy in question is America's and the stocks we're talking about are US equities.
I don't think that's an unfair judgement. We haven't had a recession, after all, we
Incisive, well reasoned analysis is always useful to read. Whether it turns out to be the right call in the near or long term, or not.
When making decisions, we weigh the pros and the cons. Have to give as much thought to the arguments against as to those for.
I have a lot of respect for people like Wilson and Kolvanovic.
We’re in a dystopian world–duh. It’s so easy right here/now to abandon financial discipline. Trump offers his version of financial nirvana (ha!). Biden ain’t so bad with his 5% ST treasury yield. The collective has decided Bitcoin is going to the moon. All of my trend following equity indicators are screaming bullish. But still, here I sit with 65% ST bonds. Me and Marko. No advice intended.
Perhaps Marko will be the subject of a remake of “The Scarlet Letter.”
So many times in the past, I’ve looked at the market and lamented, “Why didn’t I do that?”.
I don’t do that anymore. I’m at that point in life where safe growth, regardless of the rate, is my only concern.
My crystal ball has been on the fritz for as long as I’ve been around.
As a long time subscriber, I’ve come to the conclusion (and I believe you’ve said it before) no one knows what the future holds for us.
Guesses , no matter how educated , are guesses.