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Don’t Look Down
I haven't counted myself among equity bears in quite a while, and I'm far from convinced that now's a good time to board the disaster bandwagon.
That said, I'll confess: The summit push which found the S&P reclaiming record highs despite a poor start to the year for bonds feels suspiciously like a trap on some days.
It's not so much the bond weakness that's irksome. Rather, it's nascent evidence of capitulation, both quantitative and qualitative, that feels somewhat ominous.
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Seems like Mike Wilson “stepping down” from CIO at Morgan Stanley is a capitulation moment for the bears. Could be a good countertrend selling signal.
Additionally, I think everyone that has been pushing this market broadening narrative is banging their heads on the wall right about now. Trees don’t grow to the sky, but it sure seems like mega cap tech does.
I just had a chat with our local UPS delivery guy. (Love that guy.) He told me things have and continue to slow. What happens when the Fed starts cutting in June? To infinity and beyond? Or has it all been pulled forward?
This moron capitulated. Good thing I took Charlie’s advice on options for the single stock ETF volatility bet.
So far 51% of the S&P 500 has reported 4Q. 68% beat revenues, 77% beat EPS. 41% saw 1Q24 revenue consensus go up, 34% saw 1Q24 EPS consensus go up. That is by name – by market cap looks a little better.