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Wilson: Lack Of ‘Forecast Dispersion’ Could Spell ‘High Variance’ In Asset Prices
I've avoided being this blunt until now, but here it is: It doesn't make a lot of sense to devote overflowing coverage to Wall Street's top-down equity strategists.
That doesn't mean I won't do it in 2024, particularly in the event there's a significant selloff, but we shouldn't harbor any illusions: Forecasting the S&P 500 a year (let alone two or three years) in advance is a mug's game. Everybody knows that. Including the people whose job it is to do it.
I've also grown weary of repetiti
Are you basing that statement (“I’m older than I am young”) on the published life expectancy for a male in the US (73)? Or your own estimate of your life expectancy?
With respect to 2024 SPY- I really don’t care what it is on the last day of the year- I will be following the macroeconomic situation throughout 2024 to help me time a sale or two for some discretionary “wish list” purchases.
I love the Werner Heisenberg-esque quantum indeterminacy of the bear’s outline, highlighted by the question mark.
If you view exhibit 3 above while jumping up and down on a pogo stick, the optical illusion created will fool you, with the shifting peaks and troughs appearing to be an infinite straight line.
“It could go up, it could go down”…
TBF, it seems the easy money in the (not yet even started!) easing cycle has been made. I still think the unprofitable tech stocks that are still 60-75% down (compared to 80-95% two months ago) have some catch up potential once the Fed actually eases.
But everything else is pretty tough to call, I agree…