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Fed, Like The Rest Of Us, ‘Perceives’ Lots Of Uncertainty
The December FOMC minutes were hawkish. Sort of. Maybe. At the margins.
That's probably how the market will read them, and the media spin will likely lean that way too.
Although officials acknowledged the new dot plot suggests rate cuts by the end of 2024, there was little in the way of evidence to suggest anyone's in a hurry.
In fact, there were allusions to the possibility of additional rate hikes, even as upside risks to inflation have diminished, according to officials.
Whatever the case
Market-expected cuts declined with the minutes’ release. Which seems silly.
It occurs to me, when the minutes are edited and finalized, might Fed staff lean the finished product as desired – in this case, to sound a bit hawkish?
Anyway, in any good meeting, participants will present the whole range of options and considerations, so the tea leaf readers can find whatever they want to find.