Is The Optimistic Scenario Already In The Price?

"We believe much of the optimistic scenario is already reflected in US equity prices today." So said Goldman analysts including Ryan Hammond and David Kostin. "The optimistic scenario" refers to the most stock-bullish outcome from a trio of hypothetical "paths" for equity valuations contingent on real yields. As readers are surely aware, reals fell dramatically over the last several weeks. After breaching 2.50% in October, 10-year reals receded more than 50bps in a very compressed time frame,