The ‘Waller Doctrine’ And The History Of First Cuts

The past six weeks were defined by growing conviction in Fed rate cuts. Although that conviction might be shaken by a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, it'll take a re-acceleration in realized inflation and a (much) more assertively hawkish cadence from Jerome Powell to truly dissuade wagers on a lower policy rate as soon as the March (or May) FOMC meeting. Softer data played a big role in the rates about-face witnessed since late-October, but Chris Waller's remarks on November 28 were piv