G7 or Belt and Road. That was the choice for Italy. When push came to shove, it was no choice at all.
Prior to the pandemic, the fractious coalition between Matteo Salvini’s League and Five Star gambled on membership in Xi Jinping’s signature global infrastructure initiative, much to the chagrin of Italy’s Western allies.
“[There’s] nothing for them to worry about,” Luigi Di Maio told CNBC at the time. “Them” was the US. When Italy signed the agreement with China, Donald Trump was in the process of crafting a crackdown on Chinese telecoms.
Trump’s move to blackball Huawei came just two months after Xi visited Rome for a state visit. On that trip, in March of 2019, Xi was “greeted at the presidential palace by guards on horseback, a privilege usually only given to monarchs and popes,” as The Guardian helpfully noted. Italy and China will “revitalize the ancient Silk Road,” Xi declared, during a press event with Sergio Mattarella.
Fast forward to 2023 and Italy’s support for the initiative simply wasn’t tenable. Relations between China and the West have deteriorated meaningfully amid national security recriminations, allegations of underhanded economic practices and doubts about Xi’s commitment to peaceful cross-Strait reunification.
Notwithstanding the emperor’s welcome Xi enjoyed in San Francisco last month, Beijing’s bilateral relationship with Washington is, by almost every account, the worst it’s ever been.
Note that the G7 is now avowedly pursuing a so-called “de-risking” strategy vis-à-vis Xi. “Our policy approaches are not designed to harm China nor do we seek to thwart China’s economic progress and development,” the communiqué released following May’s leaders’ summit in Hiroshima read, adding that,
We are not decoupling or turning inwards. At the same time, we recognize that economic resilience requires de-risking and diversifying. We will take steps, individually and collectively, to invest in our own economic vibrancy. We will reduce excessive dependencies in our critical supply chains.
In light of that, Italy’s participation in what critics still charge is a Trojan horse — a scheme to financially subjugate participants and propagate Chinese foreign policy — became a non-starter.
On Wednesday, sources told the Western media that Italy has, in fact, officially notified Beijing that Rome won’t renew the agreement when it expires in March. Italy’s participation is over.
This wasn’t a surprise. Giorgia Meloni made no secret of Italy’s intention to withdraw. She’s cast doubt on the benefits for Italy and previously called the country’s decision to join up a “mistake.”
Invariably, supporters of Belt and Road will make (mostly spurious) claims about the drawbacks for Italy of exiting the arrangement, including the notion that Beijing may discourage Chinese consumers from buying Italian luxury brands.
Whatever the merits of such arguments, Italy simply can’t afford to be on the wrong side of the world’s new Cold War. The US doubtlessly made as much clear to Meloni who, just prior to visiting the US in July, insisted that “the president of the United States has never directly raised the question [of Belt and Road participation] with me.”
A day later, in a joint statement issued following her trip to the White House, the prime minister and Joe Biden “reiterate[d] the vital importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” “The United States and Italy also commit to strengthen bilateral and multilateral consultations on the opportunities and challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China,” the statement added.
