How Long Before The Fed Faces Reserve Scarcity?

A few days ago, I mentioned that RRP drain had likely started the clock on the end of balance sheet rundown. In the wake of the debt ceiling deal six months ago, sundry liquidity bear cases made the rounds, all of which were predicated at least in part on the notion that Treasury's cash rebuild might not go as planned, that RRP transformation wouldn't be "one-for-one" (so to speak) and that with Fed QT running in the background, the potential for "friction" (if you will) was high. Those bear c