Jobless claims in the US steadfastly refuse to cooperate with, let alone corroborate, recession narratives.
Initial claims dove to just 209,000 in the week to November 18, data released ahead of Thanksgiving in the US showed.
That was below every estimate, and it wasn’t close. The lowest guess was 220,000.
The WoW decline was the most pronounced since June, and counted as the second-largest in two years. The four-week average fell to 220,000.
Context is key. Recall that initial claims were the highest since August 19 during the prior week, when the headline print notched its biggest weekly increase since August 5. Wednesday’s update negated that jump — and then some.
Continuing claims, which rose to the highest in nearly two years earlier this month, receded to 1.84 million in the week ending November 11. That was below estimates.
The below-consensus initial claims print (this time during NFP survey week) was a déjà vu all over again moment for macro watchers who in 2023 were forced to concede that “this time” is at least a little bit “different” given lingering distortions in the US labor market.
Plainly, the potential for the claims update to move any narrative needles was limited by the proximity of what’ll be a de facto five-day weekend for US traders.
