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Forced To Cut
The top question now for markets is whether traders and investors are jumping the gun by extrapolating a run of soft US macro data into a Fed easing cycle commencing from late Q1 2024.
To be sure, the combination of i) softer payrolls and retail sales, ii) cool CPI and PPI, iii) lackluster consumer sentiment and iv) ISM misses, argues strongly in favor of the notion that monetary policy is finally working its "magic" on a lag, and that this time isn't different after all.
Jerome Powell introdu
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