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‘Just No Need For A Recession’: Goldman Delivers Optimistic 2024 Macro Outlook
Goldman is pretty optimistic about global growth and (dis)inflation in 2024.
That was the overarching takeaway from the bank's year-ahead macro outlook.
If you're new to the research cycle, you're in for a real "treat" over the next three or four weeks. Beginning in mid-November and continuing into December, banks flood clients with voluminous research pieces detailing forecasts for the upcoming year. Virtually none of those forecasts will be any semblance of accurate, but here's hoping Goldma
I will believe disinflation when I see my real estate taxes, health and car insurance and $38 a quart paint go down.
I can easily see producer price disinflation, but I’d be very surprised to see any of that passed along to the consumer. Gas/energy are about the only market where falling input prices actually make their way back to people’s wallets.
I guess that’s possible with rents and real estate too, but wouldn’t anticipate that happening any time soon.
That’s not what “disinflation” means. There’s a difference between disinflation and deflation. You’re not going to get broad-based deflation. Ever. And that’s by design.
If ever a comment from you warranted elucidation. I’d love to read more about that.
To summarize, “Everything’s coming up roses, unless it doesn’t.”
Thanks, James. My sentiments as well. But I have to appreciate Walt’s point about the silly fiction out there. It’s hard to be human and keep a balanced perspective about investing, but it’s an absolute necessity. That’s why I’m a member of this informative community.