New home sales exploded higher in September, data released on Wednesday in the US showed.
The 759,000 annual rate exceeded every estimate from the five-dozen economists who ventured a guess. The highest forecast was 750,000.
It was the briskest pace since the onset of the Fed’s tightening campaign.
The MoM increase, 12.3%, was the largest in over a year. Sales rose in every region last month, including a 22.5% jump in the Northeast and a near 15% surge in the “affordable” South.
The big gain came on the heels of a fairly sharp decline in August, when the selloff at the long-end of the US Treasury curve pushed up mortgage rates and undercut builder sentiment.
Although high rates are clearly an impediment for buyers, new construction remains the only viable option amid an acute dearth of resale inventory. I’ll repeat myself, verbatim: Aspiring homeowners can’t buy what isn’t for sale, and what isn’t for sale are used homes. So, new homes it is — on the off chance you can afford one.
Speaking of affordability, the median new home price dropped more than 12% last month, to $418,800. The data is volatile, but it was among the largest YoY declines in figures going back six decades.
The latest NAHB survey suggested builder price cuts were pervasive last month and also in October, as buyers needed incentives to brave the highest financing costs in 23 years.
The average price for a new home in September was $503,900.
Also on Wednesday, the MBA said mortgage applications fell 1% from the prior week. Mortgage rates rose 20bps to 7.9% on the MBA’s index. That marked yet another new “since 2000” high.
Recall that 10-year Treasury yields rose more than 30bps last week.
“Mortgage rates have now risen seven consecutive weeks at a cumulative amount of 69bps,” MBA VP Joel Kan remarked. “These higher mortgage rates are keeping prospective homebuyers out of the market.”
Not out of the new construction market, apparently. Of course, new construction comprises just a fraction of overall US home-buying. Existing home sales were the slowest since 2010 last month.





My daughter just bought a house here in Kansas. Every one she looked at sold for over asking and most on the market less than 36 hours, hers less than 12.