Microsoft, Alphabet Wave Large Numbers Around

Microsoft topped sales and profit estimates with fiscal year Q1 results released after the bell in the US on Tuesday.

Revenue of $56.52 billion rose nearly 13% YoY, and easily exceeded the $54.5 billion consensus expected.

It was the briskest pace of top-line growth in six quarters for Microsoft.

Amy Hood lauded “consistent execution” by the company’s sales teams who, together with “partners,” delivered a “strong start to the fiscal year.”

Pretty much everything was a beat, but as I always caution with Microsoft results, it ultimately hangs on the Azure guide. And it’s not always safe to extrapolate after hours price action, even once that figure is known.

Cloud revenue of $31.8 billion was a beat. Analysts were looking for $31.2 billion there. Azure revenue growth was 29% (slightly lower on a constant currency basis). That was well ahead of the midpoint from last quarter’s guide as initially communicated.

The re-acceleration from the prior quarter’s YoY growth rate marked the first pick up since the March quarter in 2022. On the call, Microsoft said Azure growth should be between 26% and 27% this quarter (purple dot in the chart above).

Personal computing sales of $13.67 billion easily exceeded estimates. EPS of $2.99 was a solid beat too ($2.65).

Satya Nadella had to say something about the robots. It’s all about the robots in 2023, and particularly at Microsoft which hit the lottery with OpenAI. “We are rapidly infusing A.I. across every layer of the tech stack and for every role and business process,” Nadella declared.

I don’t know whether to be excited or terrified.

Alphabet’s results were fine too, although the market was irritable about a slight miss for Cloud. Overall revenue of $76.69 billion beat and EPS of $1.55 was a dime ahead of consensus. Operating income missed.

Note that revenue growth is back in the double-digits now. The ex-TAC print was $64.05 billion, a billion ahead of consensus.

Ruth Porat, who now occupies two C-suite roles and one C-suite-equivalent role simultaneously, bragged about the “fundamental strength” of the business, which was on display “again” last quarter. $77 billion in revenue is a lot, she emphasized. Cloud has “momentum.”

Perhaps not enough momentum, though. Cloud revenue was short of estimates at $8.41 billion. The Street wanted $8.6 billion. Cloud is barely more than a rounding error for the top-line, but investors care about it, and they want beats. Never mind that $8.41 billion represented 22% growth versus the same quarter a year ago. Porat later said cloud sales were affected by customer cost-cutting.

Everything else looked ok. Ad revenue was $59.65 billion, better than expected. YouTube ad revenue was a slight beat at $7.95 billion. “Other” beat ($8.34 billion versus $7.94 billion) and “other bets” (which is separate) beat too, with $297 million in sales versus $260 million expected. It must be nice when your side hustles bring in nearly $300 million in three months.

Like Nadella, Sundar Pichai was keen to talk robots. “We’re continuing to focus on making A.I. more helpful for everyone,” he said, before teasing “exciting progress and lots more to come.”

I dare say investors would be better served listening to Hood and Porat at this point. Nadella and Pichai are compelled to pound the table on A.I., even if there’s nothing new to announce right now. Nadella has the edge given Microsoft’s massive stake in OpenAI, but Pichai has… well, he has Google. That’s not nothin’.

Ultimately, Microsoft and Alphabet did fine last quarter. That’s not to pre-judge how the market will trade their reports. Traders’ interpretation of the Azure guide will be pivotal, and investors have been anything but forgiving this quarter. But nothing here suggests the bottom is about to fall out for the broader economy, let alone for America’s mega-caps.


 

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4 thoughts on “Microsoft, Alphabet Wave Large Numbers Around

  1. GOOG’s Search growth accelerated, and was higher than MSFT’s “Search & Ad” sub-segment. GOOG search sub-segments had easier YOY comps than last quarter, and will have easier comps again next qtr. YouTube advertiser spend has reportedly “stabilized”, and comps there are easier next qtr too. However, soft Cloud growth amid customer “cost optimization”, plus higher capex and renewed cost-cutting to make room for AI spend, are ruining the mood.

    MSFT had stronger results and , I think, did a better job attributing those results to AI. MSFT can build AI into its products and claim people are using it, while GOOG has to wait for its Cloud customers to do the same. Windows, Office, and Edge will supposedly soon be bursting with AI under the “CoPilot” branding, and growth there will be AI-evidence. MSFT claims AI added +300bp to Azure growth, which was sparkling at +29%. ATVI will also boost growth from October on. Note though MSFT guided EBIT margin flat for F2024 despite being up in F1Q, implying that AI cost burdens will show up later in the fiscal year.

    If the stocks that went up on AI-hype in 1H are being required to show AI-impact in 2H, perhaps investors feel GOOG failed the 3Q quiz and MSFT passed?

  2. I’ll go with terrified, H. Mainly because there seems to be no meaningful restraint on the part of the big guns’ rollout despite the cacophony of experts who have advised caution. This is now a plain dash for cash and I see none of the urgency to legislate that would be necessary to take some risk off the table . Most of us who read your commentary are comfortable with the concept of market failure, but these risks are of a different order of magnitude from the stuff of economics textbooks.

  3. As of Oct 25, my tracking of 3Q earnings is: 24% of S&P 500 (by name, not cap) have reported 3Q. Of those, 38% (again, by name) saw positive revisions to 4Q revenue estimates and 28% saw positive revisions to 4Q EPS estimates.

    On July 25, my tracking of 2Q earnings was: 18% had reported, 38% +ve revisions 3Q revenue and 38% +ve revisions 3Q EPS. By the end of 2Q reporting, it was 46% and 41%.

    On April 25, my tracking of 1Q earnings was: 18% had reported, 43% +ve revisions 3Q revenue and 37% +ve revisions 3Q EPS. By the end of 1Q reporting, it was 48% and 39%.

    TL:DR 3Q earnings not going well – and this week is the meat of it.

    “Positive [negative] revisions” means that consensus now for that name/quarter is higher than [lower than] consensus one day before its earnings report.

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