“No surrender!” shouted the US labor market.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 14 were just 198,000, Thursday’s release showed. That was a new “since January” low.
After hitting 202,000 in the week to September 16, initial claims rose for three straight periods, even as they remained very (very) low. That streak of increases at least suggested that the “dangerous” (in a “good news is bad news” sort of way) flirtation with a sub-200,000 print was over. Thursday’s release proved otherwise.
The four-week moving average is now just 205,750. That’s the lowest since February 4.
Unadjusted claims were 181,200, down from 199,700 the prior week. Continuing claims through October 7 were 1.734 million. That was above estimates.
I assume readers don’t need me (or anyone else) to spell it out but, as BMO’s Ben Jeffery put it, the claims figures were “yet another piece of information that cements the narrative of a labor market that continues to withstand tighter monetary policy.”
Cameron Crise, writing for Bloomberg, tried to offer some hope for underwater duration longs. “Continuing claims are now at their highest level since July,” he wrote. “Given that they are less noisy than initial claims, perhaps battered bond bulls can take respite from that signal of a slight loosening in conditions.”
I doubt it. Not the analysis. That part’s fine. But I doubt bond bulls will find solace in the continuing claims update. Not in the presence of a sub-200,000 NFP survey week initial claims print at a time when the last thing an unanchored US long-end needs is evidence in favor of an encore to September’s blockbuster jobs report.
