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Hawkish At The Margin
If last week was all about cooperative macro data in the US, this week's sparse releases were a bit unruly.
Remember: "Cooperative" in this context means "soft, but not weak," as JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke put it.
To be sure, nobody convinced of a soft landing or "immaculate disinflation" was going to abandon their view based on ISM services, another downside weekly claims print and ULC revisions, but for whatever it's worth, all three of those updates argued for a more hawkish Fed.
The hot
regardless of data at the margins or middle, opaque it all remains. data outside economists’ estimates reinforces that opaqueness imho. (all economist jokes aside)
Seeing more anecdotal real-time hints of weaker labor conditions – companies doing just merit & COLA pay increases this year, or reducing hours, or not paying up as much for new hires in some sectors. It seems that the “official” wage data should lag at turning points.
Example (survey): https://www.wtwco.com/en-us/news/2023/06/us-employers-anticipate-2024-pay-raises-to-remain-high-as-labor-market-challenges-remain-wtw-survey