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Two Bears Reflect On 2023
Late last month, I published "A Brief History Of 2023’s Macro Narrative Stop-Outs" which, as the title implies, recapped the ebb and flow of an ever-shifting market zeitgeist.
The point was both to remind readers of "how we got here," so to speak, and also to illustrate how nimble one has to be to stay in step with fickle markets these days.
In fairness to anyone wrong-footed by the equity rally (or by bonds' inability to break out of what now threatens to be an unprecedented three-year stre
I wonder to what extent federal stimulus has continued after the direct pandemic stimulus ended, via the $1TR deficit (deficit spending is a form of stimulus, surely) and CHIPS/IRA (summing up estimates of the new renewable and semiconductor investments so far triggered by these, looks like around $0.5TR? although how much of that is still merely announcements is unclear to me).
Marko seems to have a better handle on the cause and effect vector in his forecast.
AI is likely to boost productivity measures. But at what cost?