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Checking In On The Taiwan Canary
If you care at all about the fate of the world, you should be concerned about Taiwan.
Without downplaying the unfathomable tragedy unfolding in Ukraine, the biggest risk to global peace and security centers around Xi Jinping's reunification dream, which he intends to realize one way or another. Peaceful reunification seems unlikely, and Taiwan isn't Hong Kong. Usurping the island's democracy will require force and at this point, it seems reasonably clear the US would be prepared to defend Taiwa
One scenario might be for the PLA to blockade ocean shipping to/from Taiwan, which it could easily do. Even detaining a few vessels on various “maritime safety” pretexts would scare away shippers and start Taiwan’s economy spiraling. Xi could then dare the US to respond. How high is the bar for the US Navy to begin intercepting shipping to/from China? Pretty high, I’d think.