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‘Soft Landing’ Dominates In Macro Narrative Tug Of War
The "soft landing" narrative spent the last two or three months gathering adherents in the US, both in markets and in the financial media.
Resilient consumption, a seemingly bulletproof labor market and receding inflation ostensibly suggest the Fed is on the verge of pulling off the impossible.
Gone (nearly) is any mention of a "hard landing," and as some analysts have been especially keen to point out, risk assets appear to be pricing in no landing at all.
This isn't lost on the financial me
I don’t buy it.
Warren Buffett, “You Pay A Very High Price In The Stock Market For A Cheery Consensus.”
Consumers drive two thirds of the US economy and they are doing so by running up their credit card balances (See Walt’s August 8th article).
Wherever that lands, I don’t think it will be soft.