Fed Cuts May End With Rates Still Technically ‘Restrictive’

Early Monday, while documenting Goldman's call for the commencement of Fed cuts from Q2 2024, I said the bank touched on several key policy debates in the course of sketching the contours for a prospective easing cycle. One of those debates is the neutral rate discussion. Goldman expects the Fed to stop cutting when the funds rate is 3-3.25%, which the bank's David Mericle noted is "above the FOMC’s 2.5% median longer run dot." That's important. I've repeatedly pointed to the distinct possib