Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
‘Bad Folks’ With Problems
China will release key monthly activity figures this week. The news won't be good, and anyone who isn't hopelessly naive should anyway cast a wary eye at the data coming out of Beijing.
Frankly, I'm surprised Xi and the Party still keep a schedule for data dissemination. If things keep going the way they're going on the economic front (poorly), I'd expect Xi to gradually pare the number of top-tier economic updates made available to market participants.
China has already curtailed overseas acc
Youth unemployment, that appears to be very high in China, is what actually frightens me.
Right. Just like the situation in many countries in the middle east. What can go wrong when you have so many unemployed young men in cultures where marriage is out of reach if you don’t have a plush job and a condo or house? They all seek someone/something to blame.
I’m “up at camp” for the week so I don’t have the time or spousal OK to search out the article. But a few days ago I read about a relentless rise in the numbers of students missing 45 or more days of school. At all levels. Some woke liberal commented that we are bringing up a generation of children who cannot read. That’s great for the new knowledge-based economy, right?? Oh yeah, forgot to mention that was here in the good old USA!
Some find comfort in the notion that the MAGA base is old and dying out. But those school attendance stats suggest that the base may be replenishing itself. Rural white Americans produced the third largest share of truants. They’ll be joing the global ranks of youth looking for a villan to blame and a purpose . The base.
The largest were Latino people, which may help explain why smart GOP strategists are pinning their hopes on that bloc.
China may be a step or two ahead of us, but what a bleak future this portends. Maybe Mr Lucky will be the lucky one going forward…
Not that I really disagree but I’d like to point out that violence has been declining in the ME (as predicted by the lead hypothesis) and, while there are dark spots in the US, measures of truancy/bad behaviour also seem to be moving in the right direction or being stable (airlines complaining about unruly passengers are back to pre COVID levels after 2 years of absolute insanity, for example).
Yep, and there are PLENTY of US politicians who would welcome a military confrontation with China. Heading into the 2024 elections, being accused of being “soft on China” is as bad as being “soft on crime” from Reagan onwards.
It’s a win-win for both sides …. until it actually happens.