I’ve been on at considerable length about the lack of an “all-in” capitulation moment for US equities on the flows side.

Although 2023 can no longer be described as a year of sizable net outflows from US-focused ETFs and mutual funds, the inflection (from outflows to inflows) witnessed since late May still hasn’t succeeded in pushing net flows into positive territory for the year.

Over the latest week, US equity funds shed a net $1.55 billion, the first weekly outflow in three.

The net inflow since Nvidia’s big beat and the debt ceiling resolution stands at $60.33 billion.

For the year, the net outflow from US equity-focused funds is ~$8 billion. That figure (the net YTD outflow) was $68.54 billion just prior to the last week of May.

Elsewhere, another $3.5 billion fled European equity funds. That makes 22 weeks in a row. Overall, DM equity funds shed $4.57 billion last week.

The familiar figure above illustrates the evolution of the flows landscape since Nvidia and since the debt ceiling deal. For the year, DM equity fund assets are essentially unchanged (a net $1.7 billion inflow).

By contrast, the net haul for emerging market-focused stock funds now stands at $83.68 billion for 2023 after a $6.03 billion inflow over the last week. It was the fifth straight influx and the largest since April.

Inflows to Chinese equities were $5.8 billion for the week to August 9. “Prior to the A.I.-driven equity rally that attracted substantial inflows into US equities, Chinese equities held a lead of nearly $100 billion in inflows over their US counterparts,” TD analysts including Jose Gonzalez and Chris Whelan wrote Friday. “In recent weeks, the gap has started widening once again in favor of Chinese stocks.”