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Is The Fed Done?
The Fed may be done. Indeed, the market suspects the Fed is done.
July's CPI report was favorable for the disinflation narrative, particularly when you consider the unrounded MoM core prints. Not since February of 2021 has the US enjoyed a slower month-to-month pace of core price growth.
Of course, everyday people care more about headline prices than core given how much Americans enjoy eating and using energy. The country has a horrible obesity problem and uses more energy per capita than almo
Sell the last hike, amiright?
Done hiking or nearly done hiking, what’s the difference really? I think the real inflection will be when cutting looms.
It feels like most people on Wall St are trying real hard to talk themselves into the Fed being done. Just because they want the Fed to be done does not make it so. The data on the whole doesn’t support the premise (of the Fed being done) rather the data says we still have a long way to go, or at least the data is inconclusive with present circumstances saying we are not there yet. Plateaus are always hard to read and I find in the absence of clarity people often insert their own desires into their “logic”. Cognitive dissonance and such.