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Mike Wilson Will Make Bears Of You Yet
There's a "vigorous debate" going on right now around the outlook for equities, and particularly US shares, which are either in a bull market or a bear market depending on what day it is and who you're listening to.
The "vigorous debate" language comes from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who on Monday sent around a 70-page slide deck in an effort to ensure maximum exposure to "the data that informs" his concerns regarding elevated near-term drawdown risk for the S&P.
To call this familiar t
It may end up that Mr. Wilson is not crying wolf – but I have to admit to tiring of his near daily reminders that the sky is indeed falling. Too many metaphors?
To be fair, it’s actually just once per week. Media coverage just makes it seem like it’s daily.
I’m officially joining team Bear. I don’t have much data to back up my perspective (I’ll leave that to Mr. Wilson), but it does feel like consumer exhaustion is setting in. Many tech companies are also retrenching when it comes to spending, and as we know, my spending is your income and I don’t think we’ve seen the full impact of these spending cuts bear out yet in tech.
Anecdotal, but I’ve got a decent amount of personal travel planned the remainder of the year and I’ve started finding some good deals on all aspects of my trips.
Yeah, just booked a trip for August and was very surprised at the cost of flights and the hotel, great deals. I had written off traveling much this year because it was getting crazy price wise and with an over taxed system an inference service/experience. Doesn’t seem to be the case any more.
I was looking at revisions by industry over the past 90 days. In the SP500, more industries had average 2024E sales increase than decrease but more industries had average 2024E EPS decrease than increase. Of course, what do analysts know about 2024. For 2023E, more industries had average 2024E sales increase than decrease but equal number of industries had average 2024E EPS decrease and increase. Suggests inflation is supporting sales estimates but margins are dragging on EPS estimates? Maybe too crude to draw any real conclusions, but an industry rollup is always useful for picking out areas to go look at.